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Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER
I think he will handle the track.They aren't worried about that.I think he'll be close to winning,but he can't afford trouble.He is good,but not dominant.There was a horse in the Santa Anita Derby who got 1st run on him.If he'd of kept running,then he would of held Colonel off.So,if you play this horse to win,then you have to hope that the faster horses can't keep running the full 10 f.That's possible,but I wouldn't want to count on it.It's not like if he runs his race then it's game over.He is consistent.No problems coming in.He has never really run a huge race.I think if he had then he'd look very typical (of a Derby winner.) That's the question-is he good enough? I think he might have to improve over dirt(in order to win it.) The trainer thinks he might be better on dirt.Who knows? I think you deserve 10-1 on the win end,and doubt you'll get it.
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10/1 is a pipe dream, especially now that War Pass is adios. War Pass leaving makes Big Brown probably 9/5 now. War Pass would have been a suckers 8/1 IMO.