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Old 04-19-2008, 12:40 PM
johnny pinwheel johnny pinwheel is offline
Woodbine
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: saratoga ny
Posts: 986
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SniperSB23
So why is Colonel John the 2nd or 3rd choice in the Derby and everyone is acting like he's a must include on your tickets? I'm looking at a horse with a career high Beyer of 95 that is by Tiznow who is the dominant sire on synthetic surfaces. What makes anyone think this horse would possibly run higher than a 95 on conventional dirt? Isn't this the perfect horse to play against? His jockey is even ditching him to ride the woefully slow Court Vision cause of concerns as to how he will take to the dirt. Don't you at least need a superlative laden recap of one of his works at Churchill by Haskin before you even consider putting this horse on your ticket? Someone drinking the Colonel John Kool-Aid fill me in on why you would ever include this horse on your ticket.
since when does the highest beyer mean the horse is going to win. i laugh at that crap. its good for me though cause people bet that way all the time. furthurmore the beyers for the synthetic are a line of garbage anyway, especially at SA. is there any one out there that actually handicaps races anymore ? the numbers are fine but if you are betting just based on that ,well, you are missing alot of value out there . colonel john is not my top pick , but i like him. the race is loaded with speed . if it does not rain a closer will probably win. there will be horses winging out there at a fast pace and they have no shot, ( it happens ALMOST every year). its not rocket science or speed figs that see this race almost always falls apart at the end . and here comes the strong fininsher to clean up the leftovers, i could care less what his beyers were . hes won some major preps, has a great trainer that would not show up for nothing . most importantly has a running style that takes about 7 out of 10 kentucky derbies. if people could win just by betting the highest beyer figs why aren't they quitting their jobs ?

Last edited by johnny pinwheel : 04-19-2008 at 12:56 PM.
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