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Originally Posted by King Glorious
Because he's a good horse. Because he's consistent. Because he doesn't look like the distance will be a problem. Because he's a good horse. The whole thing about Tiznow's being better on the synthetics is silly to me. If you take a horse and take 80% of his offspring and run them on the grass, it's going to look like he's a grass sire. Opportunity has a lot to do with what categories sires are pigeonholed into. Colonel John's record is the most consistent of any Derby entrant not named Big Brown. He's a good horse. IMO, to say that you wouldn't play him to win because you don't know how he'll transition to regular dirt is ok. To say you wouldn't play him at all, in this type of field, I don't get that at all.
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If that were only remotely close to true. Tiznow has had 84 horses race this year and produced 27 winners (32%). On synthetics he has 11 winners from 31 runners (35%). It is virtually impossible to have a higher percentage on synthetics since horses that lose once on synthetic and win five times on dirt would count against you in the synthetic category. In fact, I'm pretty sure you won't find another horse with a higher synthetic winning percentage than overall win percentage besides Tiznow. 67% of his earnings also come from the synthetics.