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Originally Posted by lemoncrush
This I totally agree with. Most years, a horse with Big Brown's lack of experience and conditioning would have very little hope of hitting the board in the derby. But against this year's group? Uou cannot toss a horse with as much talent as Big Brown. He's really the only "wow" type talent that we've seen so far. Pyro and Colonel John have shown glimpses, but Big Brown hasn't shown a chink in his armour in the 3 races he's ran in.
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You dont think coming down the stretch like he was running from an alligator as a chink in the armor, and also the fact that he has only three starts after a performance like he had at Toga is a problem?
Think about this, if his first race back wasn't rained off the turf, this horse wouldn't have even been considered for the Florida Derby. Dutrow lucked out here and while his race was impressive last time, what did he beat down in Florida? Gulfstream racing has been putrid this winter, and probably will be so for the next couple years. I am downgrading him based on that fact, plus the fact he ran a top that is absolutely HUGE for a 3 year old with obvious issues.
He can bounce to the moon and still win, but for me, I have alot of negatives on him (Distance, pedigree, sheet, lack of racing, running style), and few positives (power number last out).
I toss a horse like this 10 times out of 10. And at 2/1, with 19 other hilarious options, makes it every more worthwhile.