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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
Let me take a second here to FINALLY address this:
There are cases where horses get perfect setups running from the rear: these would be races contended on the front end, and followed by middle moves, that ultimately collapse. There was a 2 horse duel in that turf race. NOTHING else ran. Adriano closed 'on his own' and he WIPED OUT the field. In other words, while he was drawing off the last split, EVERYTHING else was going backwards. To say that he got a good setup would be to miss the point. (To look at complicated races, as those on the turf typically are, only in terms of how fast the splits are, would also be missing the point; but we really don't want to get into that.)
We need, at a minimum, to be able to distinguish between those races where horses run exceptionally and those where they get good setups, and run well as a result.
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Were there really any world beaters in that NW1 ALW turf race? Come on he had a GII and a GIII on his resume prior to that mentioned turf race and he still was not the favorite in that race (head scratcher). I am not saying it wasnt impressive looking beacuse it it did look nice but the two horses that dueled certainly did not stick around to be second or third. His Lanes End was a bit more impressive cause he was not at a full gallop when he crossed that wire and still no one closed.
His pedigree says route, he has the loot to get in the derby, and he will be fresh leading into the derby. I SAY TAKE A SHOT! He can always go back to Turf.