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Originally Posted by the_fat_man
You know what my problem is with this data (and not just yours). This distance is run so infrequently at GP, and there are many cases of OFF TRACKS, that I think one needs to actually get in there and look at more than a few closely. See, if in fact, the post, in other words, the EXTRA distance, is the cause. Of course, this would have more impact on horses that run with the pace and are forced into wide trips. Why would breaking from the 12 affect a closer, for example?
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0 for 36 from the outside five posts is a little too much to believe it is just a few fluke cases and there have been no actual good horses among those 36. The short runup to the first turn at Gulfstream has a huge impact on these races.