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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
We are talking about a horse who I am consistantly seeing in the top 3 spots in these "top 10" lists - and we are talking about his chances of winning the Derby. Am I right?
He's run three times as you say. A pair of wins in his first two starts with Beyers of 83 and 82 ... yeah, the first one was his debut at 7f, and yeah he was really up against the race shape in his 2nd one - so I will give you that he was clearly a better horse than his mediocre figures. Thus, not a bad horse to really get behind because his form was tremendously likely to improve.
Think like a hardened gambler and not someone who is a fan of a nice young horse - catching the wedding was getting Dennis Of Cork at 9/2 odds in the Southwest Stakes (the absurd Turf War and Riley Tucker were shorter prices!) - catching the funeral might be expecting Dennis Of Cork to make any significant improvement in a race against better horses where he doesn't get a great setup.
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First off, I refuse to get into this much further until you spell the horse's name correctly.. And no, I'm not necessarily focused on Derby prospects in this exchange.
It's remarkable how trip cappers conveniently downgrade performances on the basis of 'set up'.. And conversely, any loss is explained away easily as 'up against race flow'. Think like a hardened gambler? You mean the approach in one's own mind justifying any opinion as having been correct no matter what the outcome of the race...? The approach that has you saying Sierra Sunset "ran the better race"? Here's a tidbit... He didn't. He lost. The horse that won ran the "better" race. When does a horse just get credit for adjusting to situations and winning under the circumstances as laid out? The Southwest scenario is laughable. What 'other' way was Denis of Cork
SUPPOSED TO WIN THE SOUTHWEST? That was the way the race laid out. He gets points against him because Albarado DIDN'T move too early? Ridiculous. It set up for him positively, yes, but that hardly says that had the pace been slower he couldn't have adjusted and won as he did in the FG race...
(And by the way, you know that I loved what had been happening with Sierra Sunset and am very unhappy that he won't get a chance to compete this spring...)
Denis of Cork ran faster around 2 turns than most of the crop has, in his third career start, and has shown a professionalism that few of his potential rivals have shown. He has developmental upside; is bred to continue to improve with added ground; and is in the hands of a hands-on horseman that is familiar with a classic-intended runner.