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Originally Posted by Kasept
Where's his good race? (Is that you Andy?) All of his races are good races as they each displayed certain excellent qualities. The wide rally from far back while debuting at the difficult 7f distance at CD.. The determined effort against a slow pace in the comebacker in his two turn debut on a sloppy surface he didn't care for at FG.. The professional, straightforward 'confront and continue' victory in the Southwest versus two next out stakes winners at OP.. By my count, that's three different racetracks with three different kinds of surfaces where Denis of Cork has done what has been required to win.
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We are talking about a horse who I am consistantly seeing in the top 3 spots in these "top 10" lists - and we are talking about his chances of winning the Derby. Am I right?
If so,
He's run three times as you say. A pair of wins in his first two starts with Beyers of 83 and 82 ... yeah, the first one was his debut at 7f, and yeah he was really up against the race shape in his 2nd one - so I will give you that he was clearly a better horse than his mediocre figures. Thus, not a bad horse to really get behind because his form was tremendously likely to improve.
The Southwest Stakes is what stamped him as a VERY overrated Derby prospect right now.
Let's compare 2nd place finisher Sierra Sunset's trip with Dennis Of Cork.
* Sierra Sunset: Showed the ability to rate and relax when he let run-off speed Sacred Journey set a tremendously fast pace. But, he never really had a chance to relax and finish because he was virtually head-and-head with Lukas sprinter Silver Edition for the first six furlongs of the race! That is a very unlucky trip for a horse of SS's style!
* Dennis Of Cork: Was positioned well in mid-pack - 18 lengths of the insanely fast early pace after a half mile. A Very ideal setup to both run a winning race and run a ceiling type figure.
The horse who clearly ran the better race in the Rebel was Sierra Sunset.
Now, does that mean Sierra Sunset is who you want of the two at 10 furlongs? No!
Does it mean that Sierra Sunset couldn't lose the Rebel? No! Why? Becuase Sacred Journey was back in the race - and He's Eze was adding blinkers and a candidate to take Silver Edition's harrassing role. It had the look of deja vu.
Think like a hardened gambler and not someone who is a fan of a nice young horse - catching the wedding was getting Dennis Of Cork at 9/2 odds in the Southwest Stakes (the absurd Turf War and Riley Tucker were shorter prices!) - catching the funeral might be expecting Dennis Of Cork to make any significant improvement in a race against better horses where he doesn't get a great setup.
It basically seems like you think I'm being too much of a contrarian - but look at the 2007 Southwest Stakes.
I remember you having Hard Spun as your strong "#1" ranked Derby prospect and all - and after he was 4th in the Southwest Stakes, you basically let him sink to the bottom of your top 10.
The problem was, analytically speaking, Hard Spun ran an outstanding and extremely buried race in the Southwest. You basically downgraded him on the basis of his result and not his performance. I think you are making a similar (and very commonly made) mistake if you once again put too much emphasis on result and not enough on performance.