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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't really get how you can use that as a big knock on Pyro in the same thought where you basically say Yankee Bravo is a viable horse at 40/1.
Pyro raced in 4th place, almost in the range of a stalking position in the La Derby.
YB, on the other hand, trailed the field in last and showed markedly less early speed than Pyro.
In fact, Yankee Bravo has run three times in America, on three different surfaces, and each time he trailed the field in last place early on. He's a much bigger danger to being outpaced than a horse like Pyro, who owns a triple digit figure at a one-turn mile distance.
Make no mistake - Pyro was just plain awful in the La Derby and I downgraded his chances. The 2nd place finisher in that race was two races removed from a workmanlike maiden claiming win with a 79 figure - and Proud Spell ran a few lengths faster in a race at the same distance with a very similar pace 30 minutes earlier.
If there aren't more viable horses than Yankee Bravo in the 40/1 range - maybe the four or five hyped horses right now are the ones you want.
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I can use lack of early speed against Pyro as a knock vs same re YB speifically, as you mentioned, because Pyro is 7/2 and YB is 40/1 (or whatever). That's overlooking the obvious fact that it was YB's first race on dirt and he's certainly at least as likely as Pyro to move forward. I don't think it would have been possible for Pyro to have gotten a better trip/set up laying off Charlie and JbK. Given that Charlie lasted for 2nd and that YB wound up within 3-4 lengths of Pyro in his first dirt race, it's certainly not inconcievable YB can gain those 3 or 4 over the next eight weeks and his next race.
You're right they both are pace challenged. The difference is one is the Derby favorite now and the other could go off 40-1. If you go with the hyped horses, good luck. If you're correct on your key or press, you can find a very nice exacta. But if I bet the race, I'll play something long in all the slots in the tri/super with several others. Sometimes it works for me as it did with Steppenwolfer. Sometimes it doesn't like last year when I used Kaplan's horse Sedgefield.
As an aside, I'm going to be spending a bit more time this year looking at the California horses. These guys out there aren't fools and it's pretty likely they are going to do better this year than last year, the first year of poly-preps.
More important, how would I have done with the pg85 prop bet?