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Originally Posted by SentToStud
I'd much rather latch onto a horse like YB at a big number than stick with conventional wisdom horses like Pyro or War Pass, both of which have knocks. War Pass has trip/distance questions to answer and Pyro is likely going to be in what will seem to him like a whole different world when he sees the pace the Derby is likely to have.
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I don't really get how you can use that as a big knock on Pyro in the same thought where you basically say Yankee Bravo is a viable horse at 40/1.
Pyro raced in 4th place, almost in the range of a stalking position in the La Derby.
YB, on the other hand, trailed the field in last and showed markedly less early speed than Pyro.
In fact, Yankee Bravo has run three times in America, on three different surfaces, and each time he trailed the field in last place early on. He's a much bigger danger to being outpaced than a horse like Pyro, who owns a triple digit figure at a one-turn mile distance.
Make no mistake - Pyro was just plain awful in the La Derby and I downgraded his chances. The 2nd place finisher in that race was two races removed from a workmanlike maiden claiming win with a 79 figure - and Proud Spell ran a few lengths faster in a race at the same distance with a very similar pace 30 minutes earlier.
If there aren't more viable horses than Yankee Bravo in the 40/1 range - maybe the four or five hyped horses right now are the ones you want.