Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Hickory Hill Hoff
Geez.....thanks!
guess I'm clueless
just who are the contenders then may I ask??????????????
|
To be blunt, he's the kind of horse that fools novices. He's a perfectly nice horse. But, in order to perform even moderately well he needs absolutely everything to go his own way. His NW1X win, while visually impressive if you don't really analyze races well, was because of an almost astonishingly good trip, while more than a few others got mediocre rides, and mostly aren't that good. To be fair, he didn't really even run much better, if at all, than the distant second finisher Stevil. Now, as much as I root for Nick, I don't think any of us are clamoring to bet him in the Derby. In the Risen Star he had a fairly easy trip, and unless you want to suggest he didn't like running inside, he was decidedly mediocre versus one complete non-contender, and another solid contender. However, Blackberry Road ran a better race than Visionaire did in the Risen Star, and he's too ludicrous to even discuss. However, the major problem with the rail theory would be that Visionaire has actually proven the opposite....he loves running inside. And then there's the Gotham, where he won because another rider gave a horrendous ride, while his rider gave an outstanding ride. If you take all of this apart you have a horse with massively dressed up form that is subsequently undervalued by people who are completely fooled by his form which belies his ability.
My opinion of this horse isn't clever. He's a 50-1 shot, at the very best, in this year's KY Derby. Wow....I'm really going out on a limb. But, he also exemplifies what is annoying to people who actually understand racing when the KY Derby rolls around. If you visit messages boards you constantly read uninformed opinions based on results, or people's bets which they somehow believe elevates a horse's talent, and while for the most part you laugh it off, sometimes you choose to state the obvious.....even when there is no upside.
So, that's my explanation, and that's how I analyze horses.....by how they perform on the track.