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Originally Posted by bellsbendboy
Pillow: Your horse is very live here.
Dahoss: Thanx but, there are no workout experts per se. The evaluations are subjective in nature and misinterpretation abounds.
With that said the Derby is unique and trainers have little room for error when preparing their horses. Solid cappers employ tradition to eliminate marginal contenders based on class, conditioning, pedigree, style and a plethora of "other" circumstances, unlike the eighth on Wednesday, at their favorite track.
Maybe Majestic Warrior is a come from behind sprinter and empirically that would be tough to refute? But he seems, at least to us, to be one of five or six possible Derby winners.
Class: By a Grade one winner...out of a Grade one winner and a Grade I victor himself! Case closed.
Conditioning: Billy is under no pressure here, Coolmore's on board and taking at face value that the Louisiana race will be his sophomore debut, indicates more than a little confidence from the unpretentious Mr. Mott that this one will stretch out nicely!
Pedigree: Inbred to both Secretariat AND Buckpasser ( both won the Hopeful)and being by A.P. Indy could certainly lead one to conclude that the ten panel Churchill trip is well within this ones scope.
Style: The woefully simplist E, P and S designations are of little use in everyday capping, let alone the Derby. Majestic Warrior won both his starts from the fence taking dirt and going away at the end, albeit against suspect foes and with good race shapes. Like many Derby winners, he appears push button and professional
From a workout standpoint and acknowledging that Philski is better at comedy than cappin, most AP Indy's have little early gas and this homebred is no different. It appears he has never beat a workmate and has been blown away at least twice by maidens, but Mott may now be able to tighten the screws. The Champagne when sent off a New York nickle over even money is a complete toss as MW ran like a "crab" and had hoof issues. Trainers lose sleep over blind quarter cracks and stone bruises and the ultimate diagnosis according to Kinsman was a hoof wall separaration. The benign three furlong works twelve days after his races indicate caution and the string of Saturday works as a sophomore are similar in nature to the work pattern before MW's debut. At any rate this one comes to hand fast and it will be revealing how he works tomorrow or Saturday.
Conclusion: One of a half dozen or so that can get the roses.
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I didn't realize that you and Bill Mott were friends. However, if you think Mr. Mott is under no pressure with this horse because Coolmore is now involved you probably should rethink things. Between Steinbrenner and Coolmore I would imagine there is, in fact, a great deal of " pressure " with this horse. I highly doubt Coolmore paid the massive sum they did for half this horse for him to point for the Jerome. So, while you think pointing for Louisiana shows Mott's confidence, I will offer that is possibly indicates just how under the gun he is to attempt to make the Derby with this closing sprinter.
While he broke from the " fence " in both his starts, he took no dirt, so to speak, in the Hopeful as he quickly distanced himself from his other three rivals before looping them very late in the race.
Finally, while Phil has demonstrated time and again to understand " cappin " far better than you, I would also say that no matter how funny he may be, he is nowhere near the comedian you are. Don't sell yourself short......the laughs you provide around here are second to none.