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Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer
It should be a SPOT PLAY for you when a heavy favorite figures to pay well in the show pool. It should light up in front of you. It should jump off the page.
You can't just randomly wager on the tote board, but if you have done your HOMEWORK and you understand the POOLS then you are allowed to take advantage when Strong Heavy Favorites have good value in the show pool.
It has nothing to do with the WIN POOL. If there is a decent field size and the show money is distributed in the right way... bingo.
Don't even look at the win pool when checking to see if the show pool has value. It has nothing to do with it. You have to estimate how much value and how much late money will decrease that value. There was late money. And he still paid 2.40. He could have paid more if everyone with a pulse didn't wager late and cash on that idiotic wager.
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This is really misguided for many reasons.
You do realize the inaccuracy of the highlighted part I assume? With so much late money affecting the pools these days to suggest that you were the unfortunate victim of late brilliance defies reasoning. What happened was just was was expected to happen......the betting evened out at the end.
If somebody actually makes money betting then nobody is in a position to criticize their play. However, suggesting making show bets on large favorites, especially without the benefit of a rebate, is pretty shaky at best. While perhaps it might allow someone with remarkable patience to eke out a small profit, it is hardly going to pay for the time spent studying.
Different strokes for different folks, and it's unfortunate a reasonable discussion of the race degenerated into what it did, but you can't really be surprised that your style of wagering eventually met with some derision....whether fully deserved or not.