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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
I actually completely disagree with this. I see no value in betting Street Sense in that he is sure to be an underlay. He should have won the Jim Dandy with plenty in reserve almost without asking. However I counted 13 cracks of the whip and a lot of action from Calvin to get by CP West who didn't ever go away. I have this theory that this is not his preferred set-up for a peak performance and by that I mean he does well with a solid pace and perhaps bigger fields, with a smallish field and moderate pace he doesn't have the explosiveness. That and the oddities about each and every one of his trips make me just a bit sceptical.
The big thing in his favor is that this race didn't attract any monsters or real up and comers, so it should be his for the taking. I'm looking hard at this Grasshopper, need to check out his tg# from the last race.
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I still keep leaning on Street Sense being a Churchill Downs lover / horse for course. In his last 6 races he has had 2 blow out wins at CD and in the 4 races at other tracks (you can even go back to races before his Juvenile victory at Kee / AP) he has been in "dogfights" and he even lost 2 of those 4 "dogfights" to horses he toyed with at CD (much of this can also be made of the pace scenario noted above). He may win, but if I am going to take between 1 to 5 and 1-2 I want a horse that is clearly 5 lenghts better than the remainder of the field. At CD I would agree. I am not as inclined at any other track. I would lean towards Grasshopper or Sightseeing if SS goes off too low.