Quote:
|
Originally Posted by miraja2
I think a win bet on anybody not named Street Sense is a poor bet in this race. He is about as likely a winner as you could possibly have in a race. ALL of his last five races on dirt are better than ANY of the others here have EVER run in their entire careers, and there is literally no reason to think that he is vulnerable in this spot. If he can track down Hard Spun when that one was loose on the lead going 10f, I am sure he can handle CP West or Grasshopper even if a favorable pace scenario develops for those colts.
Actually, depending on what the board does, a win bet on Street Sense might actually be where the value (albeit not much) is here. I doubt if it will happen but if he goes off at his 3/5 ML in this race, I think there is some value there. He is a 1/9 shot if ever there was one.
|
I actually completely disagree with this. I see no value in betting Street Sense in that he is sure to be an underlay. He should have won the Jim Dandy with plenty in reserve almost without asking. However I counted 13 cracks of the whip and a lot of action from Calvin to get by CP West who didn't ever go away. I have this theory that this is not his preferred set-up for a peak performance and by that I mean he does well with a solid pace and perhaps bigger fields, with a smallish field and moderate pace he doesn't have the explosiveness. That and the oddities about each and every one of his trips make me just a bit sceptical.
The big thing in his favor is that this race didn't attract any monsters or real up and comers, so it should be his for the taking. I'm looking hard at this Grasshopper, need to check out his tg# from the last race.