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Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up
I thought she was a horrid underlay at 7/5, and since she lost want I right?
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IMO, there are two reasons that you are NOT "right". First, it's very shaky to use a race to make conclusions about the odds of that race. It's a mentality that leads to thinking that the only outcome was the actual outcome. ie, the winner had a 100% chance to win the race and the rest of the field had a 0% chance to win. The outcome of a race can support or undermine a pre-race hypothesis, but it's dangerous to push that reasoning too far.
The 2nd reason I think you are not "right" is that even if you DO use the actual race to justify or reject the odds, Sumwon's performance does not invite any 2nd guessing of her odds. Sumwon's odds of 7-5 mean she would have needed a 42% (=5/12) chance to win to break even. Also, because of the 17% track take, Sumwon's 7-5 corresponds to 35% of the pool being bet on her. In other words, if Sumwon had a 35% chance to win that race, then she was neither an overlay or an underlay. (I assume an "underlay" means that you are suffering MORE than the track take.)
Do you really think that the race proved she had less than a 35% chance to win? If so, where did you expect a 35% chance horse to finish those 65% of the time when it doesn't win? Just a nose behind, and not a whole half-length?
btw, I'm not disputing your assertion that Sumwon was an underlay. (I don't have an opinion on that, because I didn't cap the race myself.) I'm disputing your assertion that the outcome of the race itself somehow shows that you were right.
--Dunbar
PS--congrats to the owners and to Cannon Shell. It's truly remarkable what you've accomplished so far!