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Originally Posted by AeWingnut
Sumwon always finds a future Stakes horse to run against regardless of purse or condition. She is the class and speed of this race. However, there are question marks. I would bet that she will be the favorite when the odds are first posted then drift up to 2-1 or if we are lucky 5/2.
Anyone that leaves her out of the exacta is taking a huge risk.
I believe she will try her best - especially if the weather cooperates.
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I also see Sumwon settling in the second flight (if Classic Tiara stays in, Sumwon might not have a choice), and making her move when Gazzella moves. If there's anyone she's willing to settle in that way for, she's likely willing to do it for Willie. If it's her and Gazzella halfway down the stretch, Sumwon outfinishes Gazzella if Sumwon's on her game. And the fact that Chuck thinks that she got something out of her last work reassures me on that front, despite the lay-off.
As far as post-time odds, I agree with Wingnut. I think bettors eyeballing the pps will be looking for a little value as an alternate to the lukewarm ml favorite -- Sumwon's pps certainly stand out for that purpose -- and they then pound her down to 5-2.
Might do some saver exotics, but for me, for this race, it will be mainly exotics with SWLY on top and a hefty win bet.