[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

First of all, she is not going to be chalk imo. The Douglas/Pletcher horse I'm sure will be a solid favorite. my guess is Sumwon is 3 or 4 to 1 by post time.

Second, I can easily see her getting a nice trip from that post settling in third or fourth, perhaps 2-3 lengths off the lead. With the long run up the backside there will be plenty of time to get into a decent position for the turn, meaning not 3-4 wide. I definitely don't subscribe to the gun it or take back idea. With her natural speed in 2-3 furlongs she will have easily cleared all but a few horses, without gunning.

she can start to move on the leaders on the turn and I think with the late power she showed last race she has a decent shot at taking it. I also like where she is in the form cycle, (three improving starts, followed by a short break and a nice work time before last), meaning perhaps she moves forward again.

Objectively speaking, I do always prefer to see recent poly form before wagering on a horse. Some of the local horses have a few races on the surface and that can be an advantage.

that is a fair post, I disagree but I its your opinion of the race which sounds fair enough.