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Originally Posted by cmorioles
I am not trying to offend, but strictly as a bettor, I think the DT horse is a very vulnerable favorite. Her style is just not conducive to this fake dirt, and there is plenty of other pace drawn in.
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CJ,
You're 100% right. The quirky surface is a wildcard and if she tries to go, it's a dicey proposition in the lane. Think Chuck and Willie will be talking about sitting off, finding position on the backstretch and coming with a run off the turn. One of the benefits of having Martinez here is that in the successive Churchill starts she increasingly rated for him.
I assume that the opinion above is based on your figs (
http://www.pacefigures.com )... On speed, the Thoro-Graph numbers have it as a very well-matched group (see attachment). Interesting that a $30k ALW at AP could be this much more challenging than the $50k ALW at CD. I'm as concerned about her needing the race after the 45 days and missed time as the competition, based on her pattern(s) in the three race skien April-May.
No matter what, it's going to be exciting and it certainly continues to be a better scenario than running in mid-low claiming events!
(And CJ, you should really take time at some point to expound on your figs for everyone.. And we still have to get you on the radio for the segment we talked about! For everyone reading this and CJ's analysis in general, his PaceFigures are widely regarded by many in the game, as the best, if most under-publicized, available.)