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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I don't know how I will resist my urge to play longshot Minister's Joy in the Manhatten.
He's been on my watch list ever since he lost a little allowance race on the turf at Calder a few years---it wasn't the toughest of fields even for that level at Calder---but I thought he was off the charts in defeat, for that class level.
I've always thought you might see the best from him in fast paced, 10 furlong turf race---and I expect him to trip out, and hopefully he's good enough to win or run 2nd. I've certainly chased him in spots he didn't fit as well in from a race-shape standpoint.
The two name horses in this race have some questions they need to address...and the two other good ones might be overbet...
* English Channel flopped in Dubai last out.
* Sky Conqueror is legit--and will be tough--but he's never run outside of Toronto or Kentucky...and the time to get the value on him was probably last out.
* Better Talk Now didn't pass his rabbit until a few jumps before the wire last time out.
* Like with SC, Cosmonaut is legit, and should factor into the outcome, but he might not offer as much value as you'd like to get.
I know my case for MJ might be pretty flimsy, and I look like I'm just reaching for a longshot---and I'll admit that the horse has been on my radar for a real long time---but I think he's one of a just a few horses, in the stakes, on the Belmont undercard---whom I believe really has a decent longshot look.
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Minister's Joy was certainly compromised in his allowance race at Belmont,- they went a ridiculous 1:14 4/5 for the 6F on basically rock hard turf, before coming home in :34 flat. He certainly has an explosive late kick but given the lack of any real pace in here (Red Zipper?? are you serious?) I think he might be up against it again to deliver his maximum performance.
I agree with your analysis of the contenders, particularly English Channel. As much of a fan I am of him, the first-off-Dubai is a very large obstacle.
I have a suspicion Cosmonaut will be way overbet based on the trouble in the Dixie, however he hasn't performed his best going more than a mile and an eighth.
If I take a shot in here it'll be on Shakis, who overcame that ridiculous pace in the aforementioned Minister's Joy race with the guess that Lasix was the difference in his performance from Dubai. He should get first jump and if the closers sit too far back, he should be able to hold them off.