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Originally Posted by justindew
I WILL say that Curlin will probably be on my Pick 4 ticket. So I'm not totally insane.
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I was worried you were going to leave him off completely.
I think what may be being misunderstood is that just because a horse is the " most likely winner " ( every race has one ) doesn't mean you ( or one ) is betting that horse. The likeliest winner might be 30% to win ( not to say that is easily definable ) but is therefore worth betting against at 8:5 or less. However, it is important as a handicapper, and especially as one who handicaps publicly, to both understand and define the most likely winner. Many races effectively go through one horse. However, how the player deals with that horse will decide how well he ( or she ) does betting said race.
When publicly discussing a race it is irresponsible to not discuss how you are dealing with the " most likely winner. "