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Originally Posted by easy goer
Here's war emblems fractions:
23.25, 47.04, 1:11.75, 1:36.70, 2:01.13 [note: unofficial; a cut from the internet]
Hard Spun got the mile in what 1.37 flat? So you can see he's 2 length back of War Emblem here (assuming same surface, trip).
But the difference? War Emblem can flat out close under this pace. WE finished in 24.4 vs HS 25.4. I.e. WE can run as fast as SS from the front end of a moderate pace.
You can argue that this surface was different etc. ANd I wont dispute that you can. We all can till we're blue in the face. But one thing I think can be said, clearly a 1.11.75 pace was just fine for WE; no matter what you think of his fractions, he finished in 24.4 which is obviously extremely good for a front runner.
Therefore, undeniably a 1.11.75 pace was fine for War Emblem.
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Good analysis. I'd be lying if I said I have any idea how the track was playing Derby Day '02. I think you're understimating the difference between going 46 1/5 and 47 flat in a mile and a quarter race, however.
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Originally Posted by easy goer
RIght so the questions remains, and may remain unresolvable:
a) Was the pace moderate and the rest of the front runners quite bad; OR
b) THe pace was hot, and HS was a superior horse to survive.
Right? Are those the two choices?
My armchair analysis, having never been around horses and seeing this stuff on tv and crunching numbers like a nerd is.....A.
But Im interested in what YOU think.  |
I vote B. That being said... Street Sense over Hard Spun had been my exacta for 6 weeks, so I was quite happy with the results.
