[Danzig]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Just looking over something and I noticed something that struck me as interesting. Should Hard Spun and Curlin run back in the Preakness? I don't think so. Not because I don't think they can both run well but at what long term cost to the horses? I feel that once u lose the Derby, especially if u run 2nd or 3rd, there is no incentive to come back in the Preakness or Belmont. Consider these horses that have run 2-3 in the Derby and come back in one of the other TC races and how they have fared recently:

2006
Bluegrass Cat (2nd...Belmont).......didn't make it past the summer.
Steppenwolfer (3rd....Belmont)......I believe was knocked out for the rest of the year.

2005
Closing Argument (2nd...Preakness)....I don't think he's ever raced again.
Afleet Alex (3rd...Preakness/Belmont).........never raced again.

2004
Lion Heart (2nd...Preakness)........didn't make it past the summer.
Imperialism (3rd....Preakness)....continued on with his career.

2003
Empire Maker (2nd....Belmont).......didn't make it past the summer.
Peace Rules (3rd...Preakness).....continued on with his career.

So over the last four years, u have eight horses/
-three never raced again that year (37.5%)
-three more raced again but didn't make it past the summer (37.5%)
-two continued racing and even went into the next year (25%)

Is there something to this? Maybe, maybe not. I realize it's a very small sample size but it's still worth noting.

Also, it's a different game now. There are many huge purses out there after the TC now. U have the WV Derby, the Super Derby, the Travers, the Penn Derby, the Haskell, the Jim Dandy. The way the game is now, TC race winners are hardly around after the TC races anymore so these races become a lot easier to win than they were when the best horses of the TC were racing in them. Is it worth it to ask your horse to peak for the Derby and then ask him to come back and do it again two weeks later? I'm not so sure with today's horses and training.

you also have to take into consideration which of these horses were desirable for stud duty, both by owners, or potential future owners....