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Originally Posted by ArlJim78
1) Maybe the horse will be ready to run his best, but will it be enough? As good as Mr. P is, he hasn't exactly got this Derby thing figured out yet either
2) bad way to analyze a horses chances in the derby if you ask me, if Pletcher is going to run him JV will be the jockey. There is no way in the world that Pletcher sends him buts JV says "listen, this horse is not ready I'm looking for another mount".
3) Of course eight weeks layoffs are common for other races, and horses can win off eight week layoffs. as you know derby history has not been kind to horses off of long layoffs. Five weeks last year made history.
Add to that another hurdle that I think is not small, no 9 furlong prep races. So in addition to the layoff, he is adding more distance than most.
But the final comment about potential monster is the one most perplexing to me. I see nothing in his PP's to suggest that. If you have watched his replays over and over surely you have noticed the ideal set-up that this one had in the LA Derby.
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These are all serious questions to ask of this horse, I agree.
It is hard to make a decision in this race, but I am banking on Pletcher having him ready to do what it takes to win.
Tough gamble to make...