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Originally Posted by Round Pen
Dont get mad here folks I was just trying to give you guys an opinion on the race in which I have no vested interest in. But I do wish you guys All the luck in the world.
I am not rooting against your filly I just feel she is still overmatched in this spot. if I were betting the race (which I am Not) I would Play the 2,3,4 In exacta's.
Comeon Guys you have to admit that a filly that broke her Maiden for 15K at Montaineer Park this is a pretty Ambitious spot.
From a handicapping Stand point She is going to have to run a lifetime best Beyer Just to hit the board. Plus the fact that she has never passed a horse from the 3/8.s pole to the wire does not bode well. One other point in order for Sumone to go wire towire here she is going to half to run a half somewhere around 46 and change and she has never shown she can do that.
And if I am wrong about this analysis I will be he first to eat a little Crow(it wont be the First time)
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Sure we're a little enthusiastic in our appraisals of our gal, but there are several things going our way that make me think that she can, indeed, not only run a lifetime best Beyer, but also run in a style that fits in with this race.
First of all, you probably have not seen the pictures from when we got Sumwon at auction and compared them to recent pictures. Even in photos, its clear that she's flourished under Chuck's care. She's grown a bit and filled out, but she's also very fit (you can see it by the definition in the muscles in her rear end) and healthy (you can see it in the dapple of her coat). She might be in the best shape of her life.
Secondly, she's been learning how to rate, so her running style can be more versatile if the scenario calls for it, but she's also got some speed so she can try to steal it on the front end if the opportunity is there. And, she's learned how to change leads, which can add maybe a couple of lengths to her earlier efforts, which weren't that bad (her maiden win plus three 2nds).
She outran her odds two races back, and this last race was a throwout but a great conditioner, as can be seen from her last workout, which was her best one ever since we've owned her.
Finally, no matter what, we'll still love her because
SHE'S OUR HORSE.