Quote:
|
Originally Posted by pgardn
The problem is the odds my friend. There are unknowns about the horse. I will state it more clearly. Since the horse has never encountered traffic problems, the chance that he will encounter problems in the Derby are much higher. Do you disagree with this?
Now take my opinion that he will either be the favorite or going off the second favorite, hell no I wont take him. Its a risk v. reward problem as always. And his risks are higher that he folds compared to a horse like Scat Daddy (who has been in very tough quarters and races). All of this about probability and chance. When most people state their views very little is actually a fact. They are mostly opinions based on observations. So what I have observed about Curlin is that he has never faced adversity therefore the likelyhood he will fold is higher than a horse that has faced adversity and not folded. Is this really that hard to understand? Because Curlin has passed horses with composure means nothing compared to what he will face in the Derby.
Now I will admit to you the horse appears to be incredibly professional for a horse that has run only 3 races. And he looks like he very well might be the most talented animal in the whole bunch. But I feel like experience counts for a whole lot in a race like the Derby. Luck counts for a whole lot more.
|
none of these horses have faced traffic like they will in the derby, so I don't know why you would apply it to one horse, Curlin.
Going from nine furlongs to ten, I much more comfortable going with the faster horse, Curlin, who is not slowing down as much at nine furlongs as other horses like Scat Daddy.
If you are giving credit to Scat Daddy for facing diversity and not folding, then do you also give demerits for when he faced diversity and folded?
Circular Quay, No Biz, Street Sense, Drums of Thunder, they all handled him along the way.
sure he has managed to win his last two but I'm not sure how tough those races were. Notional, Stormello, Chelokee?
big question mark in my mind.