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Originally Posted by easy goer
To say he's been lightly sprinkled; Okay that is objective. To say he has never been in a pack, Okay that is also fact, assuming you are correct here.
To say "I cant take a horse that..." Okay that is a fact too, albeit it only applies to you.
What I dont get is assuming what will happen if he does get into a pack. ths horse, Curlin, seems to be relaxed as he goes by other horses. It might bode well, we've seen plenty of horse that dont look relaxed and bad results are probably more likely. I just dont think a horse should be tossed on the basis of speculation. If there is something about the horse that suggests he might have a problem then by all means, have at it.
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The problem is the odds my friend. There are unknowns about the horse. I will state it more clearly. Since the horse has never encountered traffic problems, the chance that he will encounter problems in the Derby are much higher. Do you disagree with this?
Now take my opinion that he will either be the favorite or going off the second favorite, hell no I wont take him. Its a risk v. reward problem as always. And his risks are higher that he folds compared to a horse like Scat Daddy (who has been in very tough quarters and races). All of this about probability and chance. When most people state their views very little is actually a fact. They are mostly opinions based on observations. So what I have observed about Curlin is that he has never faced adversity therefore the
likelyhood he will fold is higher than a horse that has faced adversity and not folded. Is this really that hard to understand? Because Curlin has passed horses with composure means nothing compared to what he will face in the Derby.
Now I will admit to you the horse appears to be incredibly professional for a horse that has run only 3 races. And he looks like he very well might be the most talented animal in the whole bunch. But I feel like experience counts for a whole lot in a race like the Derby. Luck counts for a whole lot more.