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Originally Posted by SentToStud
I suppose the Exacta play you mentioned is viable, but only if you're getting the right prices there. Usually it's not there, at least to the extent that you're beating the t/o. And some of it depends on personal style and preference. For me, unless the Ex pool is real favorable, I'd rather pass on races like this and look for a better (or maybe just different) single race opp.
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As a general rule, there is more likely to be value in the play btwind mentioned than any other play.
I spent a fair amount of time looking for overlays in the exacta pool, given 2 assumptions: (1) that the win odds are approximately correct, and (2) that the odds of a horse coming in 2nd to another (particular) horse coming in 1st can be approximated by artificially removing the 1st place horse from the odds list and recalculating the odds on the remaining horses. (the Harville formula assumption). There are many races where either or both those assumptions are poor. Still, IMO they are a good starting point for evaluating bets in the other pools.
In the exacta pool, the situation that most often showed value was precisely the one that btwind singled out--using a heavy fav as the 2nd part of an exacta.
I found that result surprising, because the tendency of many bettors to play an exacta box works against it.
--Dunbar