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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS
I believe Bernardini debuted in Jan--only managing a 4th, and didn't break his maiden until March....had he run in the Derby, does anyone sane really believe he'd have run worse than 2nd?
Every year, you hear all these trends leading into the Derby---and they are presented as if they really matter....they don't.
How many seriously good horses who've had 3 or fewer starts in the Derby, or have debuted as late as Feb, have run in the Ky Derby? You'll have enough fingers to count them on.
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His connections didn't start him in the Derby for a reason, I guess you know more than them but they must have thought the Preakness was a better spot...he might well have run a lot worse than second, we'll never know...just like we'll never know if he would have won the Preakness if Barbaro hadn't broken down. In past years, I have listed some very good, even outstanding, horses who fell victim to those angles...many have run in the Derby but none won. Maybe this year will be different, I never say a horse can't overcome an angle but when you have "no winners since 1918 or 1882"...well, I'd at least consider that before making a huge bet on any horse.