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Originally Posted by Kimmeastar
I MUST disagree,Steve.This horse,Tiago ,had absolutely no part of these fractions at all.At the quarter,he was ninth out of ten horses,the half,still ninth,Three quarters,he moved to seventh,the stretch,he moved to fifth,obviously because the other horses were tiring.If you want to use these fractions,the horses who ran best were the ones who SET,or were a part of these fractions.That would be Liquidity,Sam P,King of the Roxy,and Black Seventeen.Tiago was nowhere to be found,and got lucky to inherit this win.It is completely foolish to think this horse has any shot whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby,and those of you who wager on this fluke win do so at your own risk!!!!
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Only problem I have is that none of the horses you mentioned actually won the race. How can you say with certainty that, if the fractions were slower, Tiago would not have been closer and just won anyway? Of those you mentioned, only KOTR was moving halfway decently through the last part of the race which was run in decent time. It is just as likely -- perhaps more likely -- these horses didn't want any part of 9F as it is that Tiago lucked into his win.
He was giving experience to all the name horses in the race and passed all of them. To me, it's no fluke. He's headed the right way and is in the mix at the bottom of the contenders 'list' at this point.
I will say that with comparable post positions, I prefer Tiago over NoBiz. I'm very hopeful that I find a matchup with these two head to head.