We try so hard to put all these fancy numbers on something that is so incredibly complex. I realize there is lots of data to play with. This is much harder than a 6 month weather forecast. Tonights forecast dark, with scattered light in the morning. Unless a comet changes the earth's rotation.

It just never gets to the meat of the matter.

We have sequenced the entire TB genome (Cornell took the lead) and we have not identified ONE GENE that has any significance in determing how well a horse will run on a track.

Heck the fact we refer to breeding in terms like bloodstock, bloodlines indicates so much. The genetic material is passed on in the blood... how wrong so many people were.

1. Every sperm cell a single male produces is different genetically from every other sperm cell that same male produces.
2. Every egg cell a female produces is different genetically from every other egg cell that same female produces.

Combine that with the tremendous effect that the environment plays in the regulation of gene expression at so many times in the development of a fertilized egg to a mature animal ready to run and you have a crapshoot. I realize we must make some generalizations, we must have something to grasp. But the sums of money paid for crapshoots amazes me. It is astounding.

So I guess everybody can take a shot at it, and it does certainly appear to interest a whole bunch of folks. Its fun. But so inexact.

Do bloodstock agents and breeders take genetics classes? Just so they can tell paying customers what they hope to, and what they cannot predict? Genetic counselors that advise couples on potential problems in offspring have to have PhD's in statistical genetic analysis. They of course have to give out sound statistical and probability numbers or they get the crap sued out of them.

I personally would look at a female that showed great promise early in running, but got injured in a freak accident (nothing to do with unsoundness). A female that lost races due to bad racing luck (no graded wins) and got injured in the manner described, but is still able to procreate. I would look for the same in a male. The two animals that I found would be analyzed for genetic similarities in ancestors and I would hope they would be very different. And I would keep trying this method. If I had the time.