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Originally Posted by Dunbar
That's a big "if". You have to not only be right that the fav is going to lose, but that your single play is going to win. Much more often, you will be "right" that the even money fav will lose, but you will be backing the wrong upsetter.
--Dunbar
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If you make that single play "longshot" play 9 times... you only have to hit it once. And if you find nine races in which you project fair odds close to but not double digits on a double digit odd horse...
I guess the real point is I would have never bet Lava MAN to win the 8 races he has. In hindsight I would be way ahead. But I never would have done this. How many times do you see even money favorites win 8 races in a row using any track and any 8 races on a given day?