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Originally Posted by SniperSB23
You are assuming that if Lava Man runs his best his chances are the same in Dubai as they are in the Woodford Reserve. I don't agree with that assumption at all. Lava Man could ship to Dubai, run his best and still get his butt kicked. If he runs his best in the Woodford Reserve he would have a shot at winning and should at least run top three.
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The way he's shipped, I don't know if he'd have a chance in the Woodford Reserve either. And if that's the case go higher. Personally I don't know if I'd ship him...but the owners have done well by this horse and want to do it. He's won them nearly 5 million dollars. I can't blame them. As I said...I see both sides. He's got this one nagging question of running outside Cal, and in my opinion they might as well try it. I wouldn't ship him at all other than the BC at the end of the year.