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Originally Posted by Dunbar
This is inconsistent with saying that the 4/5 on Jazil was so awful. (I bet nothing on the race, so there's no rationalizing going on here.)
If you don't think Corinthian is worth a bet at 2-1, then that suggests you think he has less than a 33% chance to win the race. So, who would you give the remaining 67+% chance to win? A good chunk of that HAS to be Jazil's against that weak field.
--Dunbar
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Couple things...
I was at the race and did not bet it, so no rationalizing here, either.
You leave out the effect of takeout. To me that means it's often the case that there's no horse in any single race worth betting if the actual odds do not exceed your own handicapped line for every horse in that given race to the extent you require to make a wager.
When I looked at this race, I was close in my estimation of what the horses would go off at. I figured JAzil would go off at 4/5, Corinthian at 5/2 and King of Jazz at 7/2. The others I was close on. I would have bet Jazil at 3/2, Corinthian at 7/2 or KoJ at 9/2. None of these were at those numbers.
Total "acceptable" odds for these three horses alone add up to about 1.15-1, so I knew going in it was a race I would not be very likely to bet.
Most races look this way to me. You?