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Originally Posted by Scav
Yeah, her last figure was monsterous. I know you don't subscribe to the bounce theory but for me she is screaming BOUNCE, like I could hear her from the moon.......
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My biggest problem with the supposed BOUNCE theory is I think it is grossly overused and misappropriated as mostly it is a result of ideal conditions in one race and less than ideal ones in another. However, that being said, I do think second off a layoff, after a big return, is the race a horse is most likely to react. But, I also believe good horses don't react, and there is at least a chance Nottawasaga is a genuinely good horse.
You can't argue that if she runs back to last time she is far and away the biggest threat to the favorite. For that reason, if you are taking a shot with Strong Contender in the Pick-3, you should use her somewhere in your play. You will still get value.