Quote:
Originally Posted by jms62
First Problem is
That is an AVERAGE payout which includes horses paying $20+ to show and 2.50 average implies an 80% win rate. It is highly unlikely ANY of us would include those $20+ horses while trying to maintain a streak trying to get to 25 in a row.
Second Problem is
even at 80% or .80 Win rate that is .80^25 which is multiplying .80 by itself 25 times. This gives us .00377 or 0.37% chance of completing the streak. This is 272-1 which is quite Good to get $5000 HOWEVER the First Problem comes into play as you are not going to get close to that AVERAGE. Also do we EVER really know that a horse has an 80% chance to show given each race has its own dynamics and perils.
3rd Problem
Your BETS will be increasing and that will be LOWERING and in some tracks SUBSTANTIALLY what the Show horse pays so again we are getting farther away from that 2.50 Average.
25 in a row at $2.50 Average IMO not doable in the Number of years I have left.
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Sorry, I was saying my goal would averaging $2.50. I think the actual show payout average is higher than that. That said, all your points remain and are well taken.
I still think I’ll give it a try for the fun of it.