[moses]

$256.00 wagered
$281.10 returned

Mystic Sea ran OK but was nowhere near good enough to win and got beaten for 2nd by Insperee. Typhoon Fury also ran OK but simply wasn't good enough, also finishing 3rd.

Wednesday 8/20

Race 2. #5 Patricia Ann 5/1 (Martin/Gomez). The #3 R Disaster is the 3-5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. She's finished 1st or 2nd in literally every start of her career, holds the last out beyer advantage putting up a 91 BSF in the Honorable Miss last out, defeating the other logical contender here #4 Striker Has Dial (who arguably didn't like the sloppy track that day.) Striker Has Dial's best races came when she was able to move comfortably through the early stages which seems unlikely to happen here as Carmouche will likely have to contest R Disaster early if he wants to try to win. I like Patricia Ann who I thought ran a really strong race in her first off the layoff last out. She now cuts back a furlong and should be ready for a move forward in her 2nd start off the layoff. She draws the outside post so she should be positioned well outside of the other speeds.

Race 8. #8 Sky's Not Falling 10/1 (Trombetta/J.Ortiz). The last race at Woodbine was just an impossible task as this horse tried graded stakes company for the first time in his career, going off at 63-1. This field has a lot of interesting faces in it but is a much easier field. Trombetta has put 17 starters in the gate at Saratoga this year, winning a whopping 29% of those starts and finishing in the money in 70% of them. He also tends to do well when dropping in class and lures Jose Ortiz aboard for this race (connecting at a 40%/60% clip over the last 5 years at Saratoga).

Thursday, 8/21

Race 3. #2 Vehemente 7/2 (Sharp/Carmouche). This is another race where there will be a likely big favorite in the #3 Kay Cup. Unlike R Disaster (bet against above), I'm not so sure Kay Cup should be such a heavy favorite. Yes, she's got some big speed figures and has Irad aboard but nothing about her suggests to me that she wants to go 9 furlongs and so I've got serious questions if she can carry this speed for that distance. The horse who looks to relish the distance is the next ML choice #4 Lottie Margaret but she really got a perfect trip last out and I think that race was the one where you wanted to bet her. I'm intrigued by the #2 Vehemente, who comes from the scorching hot Joe Sharp barn and who just worked an absolute bullet in her most recent work. I had some questions about her desire to go long but I thought she had a remarkably good race last out. She broke well but conceded the lead early, went very wide into the first turn, was wide throughout, then experienced some fairly significant trouble at the top of the stretch before ending with a pretty game finish. I think she's going to have a much better trip this time and I wouldn't be surprised to see her wire the field.

Race 4. #5 Mo Kreesa 8/1 (Hennig/Velazquez). Mo Kreesa had to be scratched last week after experiencing what was described as a superficial scrape. I wanted to bet him then and I still want to bet him here. He should have a pace advantage and I like that Hennig now takes over and gives him to Johnny V.