I think it depends on the speed figure. I really like Craig Milkowski’s Timeform speed figures, particularly for dirt races. When I was betting frequently, I would often listen to the podcast he does with David Aragona (who I think is probably the best ML maker out there and who has some really interesting analysis.)
Of course, I use Beyer as well.
The main thing I try to do is use them as a general guide on whether a horse is likely to be competitive in a race to see if I can figure out a good value play. A lot of people use Beyer so I feel like the post time odds adjust for that but there are often horses with very good Timeform figures who fly under the radar.
So the Fountain of Youth, Simplification and Emmanuel will be the two favorites most likely but neither really has a significant Timeform edge (I’ve only got the raw numbers right now but I believe Dean Delivers has the highest Timeform figure coming into the race and he’s 15-1). So even though I do like Simplification for a variety of reasons, I don’t think there is any way I’d ever bet him at 5/2 for this race. I think that’s a race where the figures suggest it’s worth taking a shot on a longshot so I’ll probably do that (I’m going to roll with Howling Time whose Timeform figure from the Street Sense puts him in contention and if he improves off of that at all, has a shot to upset. I also note the very fast recent workouts so although he’s coming off a long layoff, worth a shot to me if he’s 15/1 or higher.)
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