[blackthroatedwind]

I think you're missing my point....


Sir Greeley is a nice horse. I am not disputing this. Strong Contendor had an undeserved reputation last year. I am not a fan of his trainer and not a fan of him particularly. However, he did run three pretty good races last year. His first start of 2006, the Dwyer ( yes, I understand the fig may be high as it was a tricky day and yes I know he had a perfect trip ) and the Super Derby. None of these were spectacular efforts but all were pretty good. Thus, I believe the possibility exists that he will be one of the better older horses running this year. I also won't be surprised when he turns out to be a complete fraud. However, he is FAR more likely to win a Grade 1 than Sir Greeley as we know Sir Greely has next to zero chance to win one and Strong Contendor is still an unproven commodity. Do I think he is a favorite to win a Grade 1? At this point, no he isn't, but he also is less than 5-1 to win one this year. Sir Greeley is legitimately over 30-1 and probably closer to 50-1 ( if not higher ) to win one.

Do I expect Strong Performer to finish ahead of Sir Greeley should they meet this weekend? Well, I would need to see the pps, and at this point I have no opinion on that. But, I don't think it's arguable that he has more upside. That is really all I am trying to say. Sir Greeley is a known commodity.