Derby Trail Forums - 6/21: Churchill Downs (5th-11th)

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Most Likely: #4 Lightening Struck 7-2 4th
Next Best: #8 Top Gun Tommy 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Big Effect 5-2 WON ($11.46)
Super Add: #2 Midnight Pranks 8-1 3rd

6th: MCLM, 3+, 8.5f (Derby City 6, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Have to prefer the ones that haven't had tons of chances..

Best Value: #5 Cinister Cix 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Cannon 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Chachaching 9-2 WON ($8.80)
Super Add: #2 Come to Papa 5-1 4th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P5, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Wildly competitive after horse-to-beat Echo Lane..

Best Value: #6 Mount Rundle 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Echo Lane 5-2 WON ($4.34)
Exotics Use: #8 Aspenite 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Miranda Rights 3-1 5th

8th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 7.5f (P4, P3, DD, Hi-5)

Best Value: #5 Take Charge Omaha 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Anonima 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Daisy Duke 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Black Ginger 8-1 7th

P4 Grid:

5: 3-4-8 (A), - (B), - (C)
6: 5-7 (A), - (B), - (C)
7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-7-11 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x2x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36
All A's: 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18
Backup (AACA): 3x2x3x2 = 36 x .50 = $18 (1-7-11 in 7th)

9th: Chicago (G3), F&M-4+, 7f (P3, DD, Hi-5)

Emery and Vahva can be respected here, but they seem far less scary than they were last year. Zeitlos and My Mane Squeeze are attractive numbers and good right now..

Best Value: #11 Zeitlos 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 My Mane Squeeze 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Emery 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Vahva 3-1 WON ($7.28)

10th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6.5f (DD, Hi-5)

Wow. Absolutely loaded ALW. Invictus cutting back makes sense, but how do you not figure that Walden unlocks Keewaydin? Camp Hale broke through last time after finding tigers all winter and spring. David of Athens makes 3yo delayed debut and can be expected to compete with natural juvy to soph development..

Most Likely: #11 Camp Hale 7-2 WON ($6.78)
Best Value: #5 Keewaydin 12-1 8th-DQ'd from 4th
Next Best: #8 Invictus 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 David of Athens 5-1 6th

11th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (Hi-5)

Most Likely: #1 Tizmarkus 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #11 Laughnowcrylater 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Bolt at Midnight 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Beyond Best 15-1 5th

P5 Grid:

7: 3-6-8 (A), - (B), 1-7-11 (C)
8: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 11 (A), 9 (B), - (C)
10: 3-5-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-11 (A), - (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 3x4x2x4x2 = 192 x .50 = $96
All A's: 3x2x1x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24
Backup (CAAAA): 3x2x1x4x2 = 48 x .50 = $24 (1-7-11 in 11th)

P4 Grid:

8: 5-7 (A), 1-3 (B), - (C)
9: 9-11 (A), - (B), 1-5 (C)
10: 3-5-8-11 (A), - (B), - (C)
11: 1-11 (A), 9 (B), - (C)

Simple (A+B): 4x2x4x3 = 96 x .50 = $48
All A's: 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16
Backup (ACAA): 2x2x4x2 = 32 x .50 = $16 (1-5 in 9th)

Let's get lucky!
Steve