Derby Trail Forums - 4/18: Keeneland; Charles Town; Other Stakes

Quirky Saturday of racing on heels of a demanding few days at Keeneland. Open and odd Lexington cast featured as part of another challenging P4 today at Keeneland. Charles Town quad has great late night stakes series, and carryovers are available at Aqueduct and Santa Anita! Enjoy the day... ATR moves to Churchill Downs Monday for its' annual 2 week Derby run-up.

WOODBINE

PRE-SCRATCHES

8th: 57th Whimsical (Gr. III), F&M-4+, 6f

Best Value: #3 Proud Heiress 7-2: Turfway outfit choses this over KEE.. 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Smart Surprise 8-5: Carroll mare is fine, but not at 8-5.. 2nd
Next Best: #1 Arden Belle 8-1: Consistant sort returns as 6yo.. 6th
Super Add: #6 London Snow 12-1: Another off break; Working well.. 7th

HAWTHORNE

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: 33rd Sixty Sails (Gr. III), F&M-3+, 9f

Santa Teresita is a play-against here. Why would Guillot take this avowed turf/syth runner here for dirt rather than KEE for her prefered surface(s)?

Most Likely: #3 Swift Temper 4-1: Romans' mare close in Sabin last; Got rest.. WON
Best Value: #5 Kathleens Reel 5-1: Stalked and went in perfect prep.. 6th
Next Best: #1 Santa Teresita 7-5: No faster than the top choice.. 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $9.90

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #12 Future Story 8-1: Quick; May not have beat much in debut.. 7th
Most Likely: #2 Keertana 12-1: Proctor/Johar goes back from lawn mile.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Ocean Colors 3-1: Big debut, injury in sloppy stake; Asmussen struggles with synth.. 4th
Super Add: #3 SCR

6th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Ready's Echo 8-5: Was wondering this week where he was.. WON
Best Value: #1 Fort Apache Star 20-1: Fahey gelding alternating efforts.. 2nd
Next Best: #7 A Diehl 7-2: Arnold gelding ran into toughies in long diploma search.. 3rd
Super Add: #5 Grand Play 6-1: Thornbury first out winner has worked 28f since.. 10th

$1 Exacta (8-1) Paid $32.60
$1 Trifecta (8-1-7) Paid $134.80

7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-4+, 8.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tremendously balanced and difficult filly ALW route, with 3 first out 4yo's signed on..

Best Value: #10 Laguna Plateada 15-1: Showed footing preference with move to lawn.. 6th
Most Likely: #9 Cable 3-1: Clement 4yo impressed in '08 NY turf pair; Ouchy and iffy.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Namaste's Wish 4-1: 4yo bow; Mott returnees coming in tuned up.. 7th
Super Add: #7 She's Yummy 10-1: Stidham miss aced turf sprints in NoLa; Stretches out.. 2nd

8th: Giant's Causeway (L), F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Utterly impossible turf sprint..

Best Value: #4 Marina Ballerina 20-1: Off 5 weeks; Repeat of last can win this.. 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Diamondrella 3-1: Predictably better since moving Violette to Penna.. WON
Next Best: #8 Classify 10-1: Asmussen mare has many on page good enough.. 4th
Super Add: #7 Lady Chace 12-1: 4yo Margolis Tiznow may prefer dirt, but price is right.. 3rd

$1 Exacta (5-4) Paid $42.40
$1 Trifecta (5-4-7) Paid $750.20
$1 Superfecta (5-4-7-8) Paid $4,304.60

9th: Lexington (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Masala 6-1: Developing steadily; Distance a slight concern.. 4th
Best Value: #10 Parade Clown 15-1: Return to WEBN win would fit well here.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Square Eddie 9-5: BCJ runner-up has Derby dough; 1 race = 5 workouts.. 3rd
Super Add: #3 Pitched Perfectly 15-1: Overlooked and should excel in a synthetic route.. 5th

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 9f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 LA ROCCA 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 After Thought 6-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Siren Serenade 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Gold d'Oro 5-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #6 Finish in Style 20-1 9th

$1 Exacta (8-9) Paid $22.90
$1 Trifecta (8-9-5) Paid $64.30

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-7-8-9-10-11
8: 4-5-7-8
9: 2-3-4-6-8-10
10: 8

6x4x6x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

CHARLES TOWN

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Webb Snyder, 3+, 4.5f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Place Your Bet 3-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Cooper County 9-2 8th
Next Best: #9 Love's Strong Heart 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Trust or Bust 6-1 WON

8th: Blue and Gold, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 St. John's Gospel 8-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Colonel Rutledge 10-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Russell Road 3-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Top Seed 5-1 6th

9th: Sugar Maple, F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Weathered 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Super Slash 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Cowgirls Don't Cry 3-1 4th
Super Add: #10 Spritely 6-1 (Will run) WON

10th: Charles Town Classic, 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Commentator 7-5 4th
Next Best: #3 Researcher 6-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Ea 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Dry Martini 10-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $66.50
$1 Trifecta (3-7-1) Paid $268.40
$1 Superfecta (3-7-1-6) Paid $1,197.80

<$100 P4 Play:

7: 1
8: 1-5-6-7-9
9: 3-4-5-8-9-10
10: 3-6-7

1x5x6x3 = $90

Good luck!
Steve