War Pass Photo fun.
 

I was going to do this on Denis of Cork - but he might get shutout of the Derby because of earnings.

War Pass was involved in the well recieved textbook trip picture thread last week, and his trip in the Wood is the one I will do.

Bad Trip: In a two turn route, when multiple horses hook up quickly through very fast fractions, they pay a bigger price than people think.

Before we look at the Wood - here is a very similar situation that occured a month ago in the Stymie Handicap.



This picture is taken less than one furlong from the starting gate! Grade 1 winner Daaher and Temporary Saint hook up in an insane head-to-head battle through an opening quarter in a mind-boggling 22.26 seconds.

14/1 shot Malibu Moonshine gets the textbook trip - an unpressured and isolated 3rd off the duel and parlays it into a 4.5 length win and a 103 Beyer (his other figs over the Inner that meet were just 81, 79, and 86)

Temporary Saint manages to win the battle with Daaher - and staggers home 2nd just in front of him.

30 minutes before War Pass would run in the Wood - both Temporary Saint and dream trip Malibu Moonshine return for their next start.



As you see - Daaher's trainer had the only other speed besides Temporary Saint in the race. He correctly choose to avoid a duel with TS this time and gave him a free pass on the lead through cozy fractions while rating Wafi City.

However, the seemingly much superior Wafi City (who ran a 109 Beyer in a route race at AQU the same exact day TS got a 96 in his duel with Daaher) was the one who backed out of it. Temporary Saint took the field all the way to win at 11/1 odds.

Malibu Moonshine, who beat him easily last out, reverted to his old form without the dream trip and finished 7th.

While no one will ever confuse Inner Light with Daaher - he did sell for 650K at a 2yo sale despite a modest pedigree because his raw burst of speed is very serious.



He harrassed War Pass through a sensational opening quarter mile in 22.46 over a track that wasn't yielding fast times! According to the chart plodders Court Vision and Spurrier were 18.5 and 23.5 lengths off the lead respectively after just 2fs had been completed!

To get an idea how fast 22.46 is - 30 minutes later - The opening quarter in the Grade 1 Carter was run in slightly slower time. That race featured Grade 1 older male sprinters...and they ran a straightaway for the opening quarter and only had to go 7fs. War Pass had to run the bulk of his opening quarter around a turn and had to go 9fs!

War Pass, off of just a non-effort at Tampa and a phony alw win against a manufactored field, had every right to stagger home in 41 seconds for the final 3/8ths like he did. His pal Inner Light, who ran a 91 Beyer going a mile in his previous start, only was beaten about 50 lengths this time after being sacraficed early.

While fellow Derby foes Big Brown and Bob Black Jack also both posses supersonic early speed - they both have shown the abilty to "switch-off" and rate before. Albeit BB did that on turf in his debut while still on a lead.

Zito should use the press and media to make his case to all other connections that they either let the seemingly SEVERLY distance challenged War Pass have a free ride on the lead - or they will get baked with him if they are foolish enough to take him on. War Pass might prove an elusive target if he gets his trip...but that part isn't up to him or his connections.

If Wafi City wins or comes second Saturday they are would have to change the name of Freehold to Mo'hold..

If you think WP is the same horse he was last year then you are more clueless then I orginally thought. Face it, he is half the horse he was last year distance has nothing to do with it. If he would have come back right the distance would not be an issue. WP is just one of many that are better 2 year olds then 3 year olds.

Brilliant.. Wish this kind of thing was easier for you to explain on the radio when you visit.. And the TV networks have NO EXCUSE for not providing fans similar presentations regularly the way Andy does on his show. This kind of visual evidence helps people understand the game. It shows how the horse and the trip and the pace are where the answers lie.. (As opposed to 'jockey moves'..).

Thx again Douglas!

Nice photos and explanation.

The Wood may have been the worst of all Derby preps this year. War Pass was by far the most impressive to come out of that race. Mott entered a rabbit and still had his hopeless Court Vision beaten by War Pass. I thought War Pass finished very game considering the fractions he set although they were all staggering home. The last few fractions of that race were incredibly slow.

Nothing coming out of that race is a threat to win or even finish top 3 in the Derby.

Yeah DougS brilliant...Steve respectfully the kids head is big enough..He has no job, no friends, and no career..Other then that he is perfect

Perhaps Freddy.

His unimpressive showing in his return race at GP is actually the race you'd have to base that opinion off of. The last two have been complete toss outs.

I have you.....

What more could I ask for?

DougS he simply isnt what he was(unfortunately)..It happens all the time..He peaked at two not three..Perhap CRun's are more likely to be better at 2 then 3 or maybe he just never progressed either way he has done enough..Perhaps the Preakness Met Mile, Amsterdam and/or Cigar and then off to the shed.. If he were to win any of these races it would make him a commercially sort out sire.

It doesn not seem WP is suited for much more than a mile. He's kind of similar to Hard Spun but really, not half the horse he was last year.

War Pass' stock for the Derby has dropped dramatically.

Hard Spun was a lot more horse then people think

He was one of the great horses this decade, imo.

He was nice Freddy - but lets examine Curlin's trip in the Derby shall we.

You have a lightly raced horse - only 3 career starts - never had dirt kicked in his face before.



Look at the tough spot he was in at this point in the race. His stablemate Zanjero actually comes off the rail - puts him in tight between another horse with a wall of horses (including many quitters in front of him) and worst f all opens up the rail - leaving all but Liquidity left between Street Sense and an unmolested dream rail run.

...not to mention we somehow got Drugs to bring back the Street Sense Derby trip :D :D

Hossy, I'll do ya one better - I'm going back to 1930 here for the greatest upset of ALL TIME!!!!

Most people don't know this - but I consider myself the best authority when it comes to evaluating trips in horse races run in the 30's.

OK, we have the Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox! We have the migty Whichone who was the last horse to ever beat Gallant Fox.

And we have the hopeless Jim Dandy - 100/1 in a four horse field. He was 1-for-20 this year.....his only win came in this race - the Travers.

As an FYI, Jim Dandy finished last over 60 times in his pitiful 7-for-143 career.

But as you can see - Gallant Fox and Whichone hook up in a duel.



It sets up for Jim Dandy!!!

By the way Hossy, all the figure makers of the 30's had that crop running much slower than than they really were. I know because I went back and made figures for every race run at every track that decade.

People don't realize how much of a bum Sun King (<--- the most gutless horse ever - and one who should have zero fans) was.

In one of the worst Fernando Jara rides ever - he moves Invasor prematurely - and is hooked up with the previous years Travers winner for five furlongs before disposing of him.

As you can see...intense looks being exchanged....




After all of that - Sun King had every reason to mop him up - he didn't.

In my opinion, Sun King and his fans are bums.

Thanks for letting me know where I stand. I guess we'll never sit down and drink a cold one together.

But I do enjoy these trip threads you have started. They are very informative.

On further thought, War Pass is more in the mold of a Songandaprayer. If he goes to the derby it'll be a thrill for his fans for a 1/2 or 3/4. I do believe War Pass would be a fav in the Kings Bishop but LaPenta seems bound and determined to make the derby. As Linny confided to us in another thread, Zito became deflated when he saw the stretch run in the Wood.

Great post, DrugS!

--Dunbar

How would linny know?