Poly to Slop
 

I just do not know what to do with these poly horses. Some of these 2 year olds have never ran on a conventional dirt track. How are they going to react when they get hit in the face with the muddy kickback for the first time in thier careers? Then take a horse like Lewis Michael, his last 5 starts have been on Poly, even the works are on the stuff. Will he make the transition? Same thing for a bad performance on poly, is the race just a toss? Is anyone else having trouble with this issue and how are you handicapping with it?

allow for uncertainty.

I was having the exact same problem. Plus, some of these poly horses may have run when it was raining, but other than watching every darn race, there is no way to know. I have not decided how to handle it, but I'm leaning towards tossing all of them.

Lewis Michael is a tossout, IMO. He looks like he's better on Poly; I don't need to find too many reasons to bet against a Calabrese runner; his horses are always very heavily bet; sometimes warranted but many times not.