5/1 (CD): 147th Kentucky Derby
 

I am probably in the minority but I love the draw for Known Agenda. With the new starting gate and the fact he wouldn't be an early pace setter, he could get a nice rail trip. He'll have to negotiate some traffic but he's got Irad aboard and has shown he can take kickback and move through traffic.

And the post might scare some potential bettors away, so you might get a higher price on him than you would otherwise.

Horse is a closer anyway so probably doesn’t hurt him as much. My gut says he peaked last race and don’t think I’ll be using him on ticket. He seems to be a tri or super horse at best. With that being said I probably put him in winners circle

A horse is going to run in the Phipps Stable colors while wearing a white nylon bridal.

We've reached the Nexus of the Universe...

I don't think he peaked last race but who knows what kind of trip he will get. Ideally, he gets a nice rail trip somewhere in the 2nd wave of horses but maybe he gets shuffled back more than he'd like.

After looking at the field, my biggest concern with that post is that he's right next to Drayden Van Dyke, who I'd guess is the most likely jockey to wipe someone out at the start of this race.

Well he was my horse but now I'm definitely looking elsewhere...so you might be on to something!

Shug must be thrilled

I wouldn't toss him just yet. Maybe it was hyperbolic to say that I love the post...but I'm not put off by it.

I'm not sure how much speed is next to him. O Besos and Keepmeinmind are late runners and the other 3 are not particularly fast, though neither is Known Agenda.

Known Agenda actually kept in contact and got first run on Highly Motivated while sprinting in a Belmont maiden race back in September. Granted, the latter broke slow and was bottled up most of the race.

Good points, and that was before Pletcher added blinkers.

Will the Old Forester be shown anywhere on TV?

Any horse in the 1 hole is going to get avoided by the experienced bettors.
But why do one when you can cover 3. If you look at the odds of last last few years of the horse in the 1 hole a show bet on him will probably pay 10-1+. In 2017 Lookin at lee paid 15.20. Thats a good bet.

https://www.equibase.com/premium/cha...7&cy=USA&rn=12

People also ask...

Will the Kentucky Derby be televised?


The 2021 Kentucky Derby will air on May 1 from 12:30 to 2:30 p.m. ET on NBCSN and from 2:30 to 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Coverage is also available to stream live on NBCSports.com and on the NBC

Thats full coverage I think.

and...

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...e_for_rain_123

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/lo...orecast/348428

Lookin at Lee was 33-1. Known Agenda will not be anywhere near 33-1.

They usually have the race going on in the background with some stupid interview going on or the announcers blabbing about hats or something if I remember correctly...though admittedly I am generally pretty loaded by that time.

Here's a link to the Derby Preview video I taped earlier...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydRQm60FOPI

Good stuff. You in Louisville yet? Enjoy the time there.

I like Colonel Liam a lot but Ride a Comet and Digital Age are both interesting at probably pretty good prices. Still trying to figure out how I’m going to play this race.

The entire Pick 5 sequence is pretty exciting, imo.

The interesting thing is that in the race prior to the pick-5, Gamine is the 1/5 favorite in the 20-cent pick-6.

Viewing Colonel Liam as a “Bricks and Mortar” type single...just think he’s the best turf horse in the country and you can dissect speed figs and trips and start to talk yourself into others (I did often opposing B&M was my point) but at the end of the day to me he’s the most likely winner Fri/Sat and I’m going to lean heavy.

Hope you post your thoughts I’ll try to tag on, good luck Moses.

Colonel Liam is the most likely winner on Friday and Saturday? Let's bet $1000, I'll take another horse, and you can have Colonel Liam. If the both win, or they both lose, no bet. But if one wins and the other loses, the loser pays.

I'll take Gamine.

You're on.

Fair enough Andy. I’m going to walk back my statement. Still think Colonel Liam is an extremely likely winner and will be the horse I pass all my multis through...touché though, you are correct

Andy
Do you like Liam in the race, if not , where are you leaning.
Gamine is on paper a free square

I will likely be leaning heavily on him as well and spread a bit in Races 9, 10, and 12.

I keep trying to make a case against Gamine and I'm not sure there is much of one. The one question I have is whether lack of lasix will impact her at all if she were to be pressured but I'm not sure anyone in this race can pressure her in any meaningful way. I may fire off a small Pick 3 or something where I use Bell's the One but I don't really want to commit any large amount of money on betting against Gamine.

No lasix didn’t seem to bother her in her comeback race.

She’s probably my least favorite horse in training but the only question mark is her lone okay effort last year was at Churchill but that was more a two turn thing than her not liking it there IMO

Agreed on all that. She is probably unbeatable around one turn.

My lasix comment is admittedly a reach but she got a soft pace in her most recent race so I wonder if she’d struggle more if anyone could pressure her. On lasix, it didn’t seem to matter. But either way, I don’t see anyone really pressing her so it’s probably a moot point.

I don’t have my pps in front of me but am leaning to Domestic Spending and Count Again. Colonel Liam can surely win but this is a MUCH tougher spot and he’s coming off consecutive soft trips.

Nice!!:cool:

Exacta 14 with 4/6/13/ 19 / 20


Long Shot - 19 Soup and Sandwich

Good luck to all!

Anyone remember back in the day when we were kids and we got in trouble at school and had to write standards on the board?

I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN
I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN
I WILL NOT BET AGAINST BAFFERT IN THE DERBY AGAIN

...and you can pretty much single any horse by Tapit in the 4th spot in the superfecta, especially if it's gray and owned by Godolphin...

5 times in the last 9 years if you count Tacitus (who was technically moved up to 3rd).

Great stretch drive...congrats to BB and all...

How good was Domestic Spending yesterday? Should be fun to see him the rest of the year

He was huge, and Liam gets another cupcake trip. Liam is an excellent horse that said he was not close to the best horse in that race. Digital Age had a weird trip. I thought JC was reacting it's like he never had a plan. I think he ran better than it looked as well.

I didn’t like his chances anyway, but it would appear as though Rosario fell asleep in the gate aboard Rock Your World. His foot was out of the stirrup when the gates opened and while all of the other jocks were pumping to get position his hands were down. He then got bumped, costing him any chance, but it would appear he had no chance from the start.

https://twitter.com/A_Evers/status/1388933579678359552

Rosario’s foot was out of the left stirrup a good 1/16th of a mile into the race. It’s actually amazing he stayed on.

I just read Rosario said RYW lost a shoe at the start. LMAO. No mention of his foot not being where it needed to be at the start.

What a game!