Street Sense Number
 

Thorograph has their numbers posted for the entire card on Saturday. I encourage you to take a look at it.

One number jumped out. A Negative 2 by Street Sense in the juvenile even while being checked on the turn in the race.

I will go on record as saying this horse will not run a negative number in his entire 3 yr old year and very likely not again in his career. I am no fan of numbers like that this early. Mind you also that front wraps were added for this start as well. The ultimate squeeze the lemon scenario and I think he is finished. He is a bet against from here on out.

What number did Bernardini get ( while failing to show up at all....of course )?

A negative 3 and a quarter. Hardly a bad race.

God, can you imagine if he had run his race?????

Could have been a negative 12!

Incidently Andy, its the same number he was given in the Gold Cup. But boy do they look different when you are facing Wanderin Boy and then Invasor.

Congrats to Giacomo also who finally broke into a negative number for the first time in his career.

you guys are brutal...and street sence will do well on the preps ...imo

Just in time for his retirement. :rolleyes:

Looked at them earlier today Rand.. I'll take the bet above. Carl Nafzger is the deciding factor here. He won't run him back until February.. He knows what he's got and did from the get-go. Sunday at the Breakfast he explained how he and Borel worked with Street Sense and how he planned to bring him along...

Nafzger, who told Mike Smith in July of 1989 that Unbridled was a Derby horse, said he knew right away what he had in this colt.

I'm a Street Sense fan. Somehow I just don't believe that a fast race in November transfers to a problem the following May. Call me crazy.

As for Bernardini, it is no surprise to me his numbers from Saturday are at least similar to his prior efforts. He ran very well Saturday and certainly showed a lot more in that race than his efforts against inferior competition. I have been impressed with Invasor since Pimlico. He's certainly better than anyone from last year's Classic ( not saying much ).

i'm hoping he pulls a wilko between now and the derby and doesn't win, but runs well enough to get his connections to enter him in the derby.

then the price will be huge when he wins at churchill again with a pace setup even more advantageous than he got saturday.

looking forward to it -- juvenile curse is over.

Thoro-Graph Cup Day Figures..
 

http://www.thorograph.com/ROTW/cd110406r.pdf

Above is the link to the full card figures Saturday...

Steve, all you have to do is look at past history...Keyed Entry and FuSam last year in the winter running their tops. How about Second of June from a few years back?(took him years to go back to negative territory and then he was gone) When they run this fast, this early it is always, I repeat always a negative....And I would never put my eggs in the basket of a 2 yr old in his 5th start needing wraps. Never.

Saying a horse is finished off the most impressive race ever by a 2yr old in the Breeders Cup might be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. You have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. This horse has been impressive all year and to say a Kentucky Derby winning trainer was trying to squeeze the lemon is insulting. He is a february foal, which means he is actually only 3-4 months shy of being a real 3yr old. He is out of a Dubai World Cup winner which means he could be anything.

This horse obviously loves Churchill, which makes him the most likely of winners in May. Of course most likely of winners at this time still means 15-1 against him winning it, but it would not surprise me if he came back and did the same thing in May over that track.

Oh yes, I love posts like this. Either you don't believe him the sheets or don't understand them, but I am not really going out on much of a limb here if you do....Hey I have no problem taking a stand on here, rather than the wishy washy b.s. by more than a few here. I'll admit if I'm wrong and I look forward to you doing the same....But in my mind he won't approach that number for the next year, if not more....My guess is he's retired come this time next year. Yet another limb. LOL.

Needing wraps and using wraps are two different things. Afleet Alex always ran in wraps.. what of it?

Running the big effort isn't the issue... Running back too soon after the effort IS... Carl Nafzger is again, the difference here.

Keyed Entry ran on that horrible sloppy track at Gulfstream which also ruined First Samurai, and then ran back way too soon in the Gotham (?)...

Second of June ran back as well after the FOY and wasn't even three at the time yet (chronologically)...

FuSam.. who cares?

Nafzger will turn this colt out and give him every minute he needs to recover.

Who knows more Ragozin or a Kentucky Derby winning horseman? That horse will get all the rest he needs and come back stronger than ever. Maybe he is just a really nice horse.

Look at some of the figures for Smarty Jones early in his career. Didn't hurt him.

I tend to agree with Randall, but Thoro's don't take into account biases, so it may have not been that bad...That's too much, too soon and likely going to do him in...

I though First Samurai was ruined by a starting gate and broken ribs.

SJ didn't run 2-'s as a 2yo, actually he didn't hit that # until the Ark Derby...SJ bounced and still won the Derby, setting up for that effort in the Preakness...

Rev,

That may have finished things up.. But I always felt that coming off the winter layoff, the huge effort that day at GP on the totally sloppy track, as heavy a horse as he was, really knocked First Samurai for a loop physically. He pounded down to the clay in that race, all out... Brothers had to really nurse him along after that.

Hopefully Lansdon will see this tonight and give his perspective, but that's the way I saw it this winter/spring...

We'll see Steve. The idea that Nafzger will magically wipe away a number like that b/c its him doesn't seem to make sense to me. Brothers and Pletcher and every other trainer that has had a young horse run a number even close to that even later in his campaign were unable to stop the inevitable. You can throw Read the Footnotes into this debate as well as he was finished off something like this also.

You are also guessing on the reason for the wraps. The fact is, the wraps weren't there for the previous starts so why now? Afleet Alex, if I'm correct, ran in wraps for only for the latter portion of his three year old season, which again was cut short due to retirement(he didn't even come close to finishing his 3 yr old season---that can't be your hope for Street Sense b/c that wouldn't be very successful at all).

Nafzger makes no difference at all.

Nafzger knows the horse. We don't. I can tell you though that Sunday, Nafzger said he will have him off now until late January/early February. Should ideally be plenty of time.

Wraps could have gone on as a protective measure due to concerns over the huge field.. getting kicked.. gaudged.. etc.. Tell you what.. We'll get Nafzger on the show tomorrow or next week, and we'll ask or you can call in...

Wraps were added because the rail was hard. Nafzger makes alot of difference and I recall the race being over in a matter of strides, with 'Sense being gathered up late.

He will race two or three times before the Ky derby if things go well and certainly will not win the first prep, or the Bluegrass in Lexington. His best days are ahead of him. BBB

This could have been just one of those "freakish" numbers. A once and a lifetime performance. What we do know is that he is going to get at least 3 months off. I can't see Nazfger running him until March. And since Carl usually doesn't crank on one in the a.m., his prep races are certainly to be nowhere near the number he produced in the BC. So in reality, we won't know if Street Sense is capable of another neg number untill the Ky Derby, and boy, that is one long road ahead of him..Best of luck!

Well said, I don't care what Nafzger says, I would hope he's confident he can overcome that, but in reality, this horse is likely finished and will not hit that number again...Nothing against Nafzger, but unless this horse is a freak of all freaks, that's too much too soon...

Ya know, there was a time, before EPO, when good horses ran good races....and continued to run good races.

Who knows, maybe Street Sense is actually a good horse. I think he is. I can't even begin to understand how running a fast race in November would hurt a good horse four or six months later.

Then again, I think the entire bounce theory is a crock.

Um, Ragozin.....Smarty NEVER ran that fast as a 2 year old...NEVER...He also debuted in NOVEMBER...not already having 4 races under him.

Your up the wrong tree here Rev

As for the argument, I agree with Randall, this has Sinister Minister written all over it.....i don't agree with the wrap theory though...I would run all my horses in wraps just because I would color coordinate and it make it look all pimp, like they did with Afleet Alex.....

'
if he runs that number in the Derby, he would win by about 10 lengths

yep, that race was SERIOUSLY fast and the conditions are what smoked him, gutted him......For him to come back and run the race he did in the FOY is amazing if you ask me, even with the bootleg ride that the jock put on that day, I think it was Prado......

The horse only ran in bandages because he had cut up his leg a few days before. The wounds were superficial but they did not want to bring him over with a big cut showing on his leg, not to mention the possibility of infection.

I do have a problem with the horse running such a big number this early in his career. It would concern me simply because three year olds that win triple crown races usually show some improvement as they progress through their 3 year old year. His number, while impressive on its own merits, may be hard to be able to improve upon. I'm not sure how you could prevent a horse from running this big of a number but he is in uncharted territory right now.

Nafzger routinely runs his horses in front bandages whether they need them or not and has for years. I actually had a conversation with Unbridled's groom about it once. She said it was just his thing...

Remember Banshee Breeze? She never needed them either, but ran in them as a precaution. Since Nafzger is on all our radar now, pay close attention to how many go postward in those front bandages. Not a toss-out reason when it comes to him.

I remember bandages on Mayo on the Side, Carmandia, Eurosilver, Santana Strings, Softly, Atlas Valley, so many more all wore bandages when sent postward by Nafzger.

He could move back 3-4 points and he still wins any of the preps.....I remember betting a horse in the Derby last year that ran a friggin 4 or 5

Banshee Breeze was a VERY sore going horse. But, good horses can run through soreness.

Ain't they all?

I do know she was pretty good early in her career and the bandages were just part of Nafzger's routine. Before she ran in the BC, however, I saw her standing in an ice tub 'bout up to her shoulders; knew then those bandages were a good idea.

And I'm not sure, but is Nafzger really a "train through" kinda guy like the old schoolers (and Lukas) are?

Another element to this...
 

Another thing not being taken into consideration in this discussion is where the figure/performance came in regards to Street Sense's development. He debuted fast (7.75) and then alternated with a top (5.5), pair (6.5), pair (5.5). The -2 is a 7.5 point move as a two year old in the fall. Hardly outrageous if the point of reference is taken without the stunningly fast figure Saturday.

If another Juvy had gone 10.5, 8.5, 7.5, 8.5, 1 in a similar series, we'd be impressed and all but wouldn't be fearing for his future. Street Sense started out as a faster 2 year old. It could simply be that this is his natural progression and he's that fast. As Rev pointed out, as a February foal, he should already ahead of the curve physically.

It could be that he's an early developer, but considering that he has been getting faster as the distances stretch out, I'd doubt it a bit. Had he started his pattern at a 16 and gotten down to the -2, I'd be a lot more concerned that the effort could do him lasting damage. But given that he started fast and got faster by his fifth start, I'm prepared to expect a continuation of good things from him under the care of one of the game's real horsemen.

The funniest line I've ever been told about wraps by a delusional "handicapper":
"Smarty Jones can't win the Derby if it's raining because his wraps will get wet and slow him down!"
Needless to say, I was glad to book his action on Tapit in that race.