5/5 (CD): 144th Kentucky Derby Day
 

5/5/18 ~ Kentucky Derby (1 1/4M) Churchill Downs

1. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez (50-1)
2. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado (30-1)
3. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanarie (30-1)
4. Flameaway-$ 70 (John Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano (30-1)
5. Audible 110 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano (8-1)
6. Good Magic 134 (e Five, Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz (12-1)
7. Justify 100 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith (3-1)
8. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham (50-1)
9. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
10. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife, Monomoy) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux (30-1)
11. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza (8-1)
12. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado (30-1)
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras (50-1)
14. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore (5-1)
15. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)
17. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables, Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat (30-1)
18. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole, St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez (12-1)
19. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar, Repole) Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux (12-1)
20. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana (30-1)
AE-21. Blended Citizen-$ 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey (50-1)

Gotta think JJC had first choice there.

Who jumps on BDO?

Not so sure of that.

Espinoza, Van Dyke, Bejarano? Do any of these already have a KD mount? Thought about Gary Stevens too, but he have may have already committed to Lukas?

Javier almost surely stuck with the trainer he needs to ride for over the long haul. It is highly unlikely he believes Audible is more likely to win the Derby than Bolt D'Oro.

I agree. I was surprised that the bettors in Pool 4 considered Audible a more likely winner than Bolt D'Oro.

Thinking perhaps Victor.......

Then why take the Bolt mount in the first place? It seems unlikely Ruis would have given the mount to JJC without an understanding that the Derby was a part of the deal.

Well, apparently he didn't.

It's a reasonable question but it's also not unreasonable to suggest that two months ago that Todd wouldn't have needed Javier.

If i had to choose, it would be Vino of the Pletcher horses. Seems to be putting it together, and an argument can be made he just disliked Tampa. Seemed to be spinning his wheels late in races after being perfectly placed.

I'm interested to see Magnum Moon run this weekend again. Ran big in the rebel and if he improves will be very dangerous in the derby. In my opinion Todd's best horse.

The problem with that argument is his race in the Sam Davis. He can't like it one day and then not on another.

Javier realizes that Bolt Was no match for Justify and as least has a chance with Audible who has been brilliant so far. As cool as some of the contenders are, they are all running for second money as it is clear that Justify is the goods.

what are the chances that TP's horses don't hit the board, ala Zito's fivesome years ago ? Just sayin' --

I have Justify at 30/1 I just vomited in my mouth and ripped my ticket up. Come on Kryptonite...DOOMED

If you're saying that to make me feel good, it worked.

Jon White's Early Kentucky Derby Odds

3-1 Justify
6-1 Magnum Moon
6-1 Mendelssohn
8-1 Audible
8-1 Bolt d'Oro
8-1 Good Magic
15-1 Vino Rosso
20-1 Enticed
20-1 Flameaway
20-1 Noble Indy
20-1 My Boy Jack
20-1 Quip
30-1 Free Drop Billy
30-1 Gronkowski
30-1 Hofburg
30-1 Solomini
50-1 Bravazo
50-1 Firenze Fire
50-1 Lone Sailor
50-1 Promises Fulfilled

Quip will bypass Derby, try Preakness.. Combatant moves into field.. Instilled Regard now on deck..

Madonamia, it's almost like these horses know i have a futures wager on them.


-bt-

Gronkowski now officially out..

Damn.

3-1 Justify
6-1 Magnum Moon
6-1 Mendelssohn
8-1 Audible
8-1 Bolt d'Oro
8-1 Good Magic
15-1 Vino Rosso
20-1 Enticed
20-1 Flameaway
20-1 Noble Indy
20-1 My Boy Jack
20-1 Quip
30-1 Free Drop Billy
30-1 Gronkowski
30-1 Hofburg
30-1 Solomini
50-1 Bravazo
50-1 Firenze Fire
50-1 Lone Sailor
50-1 Promises Fulfilled

Looking at those horses it looks like the fav. will be 3-1 at post. Not sure if it will be Justify though. Big payouts likely on exotics this year.

Anyone remember odds or have PP's for Bellamy Road in 2005 Derby? When looking at Justify I can't help but compare the 2. Very fast horses that will take a lot of money but weren't tested yet. Bellamy Road ran pretty well considering the pace and had the lead at the top of the stretch?

He went off at 5/2. There were some burners in that race including Spanish Chestnut, who went a crazy half.

He ran 3x as a 2yo so I'm not sure he's the best comp. Bodemeister is the best I've got.

I know it's not a direct comparison because of when they started racing but I feel like the way the race is going to play out could be similar. Instead of Spanish Chestnut we have Promises Fulfilled to gun it. While i'm not sold he goes 22 and 44 I can't help feel like Romans will have him rolling to give Free Drop Billy something honest to run at.

2018 PACE QUADRANTS WITH JAMES SCULLY

ON

1-Promises Fulfilled 1st
2-Justify 2nd
3-Noble Indy 5th
4-Flameaway 6th
5-Mendelssohn 9th


NEAR

6-Magnum Moon 10th
7-Good Magic 4th
8-Enticed 11th
9-Bravazo 8th
10-Solomini 20th


STALK

11-Vino Rosso 18th
12-Instilled Regard 17th
13-Audible 12th
14-Bolt d'Oro 3rd
15-Firenze Fire 7th


OFF

16-Hofburg 16th
17-Free Drop Billy 14th
18-Combatant 13th
19-Lone Sailor 15th
20-My Boy Jack 19th

GARY YOUNG'S CLOCKING NOTES

April 27

Audible 12:1 24:1 49:2 gallop out 1.02

Worked in company with National Flag and proved slightly best to mild urging under Javier Castellano. He is a notoriously unwilling worker, but hey, give him credit for knowing practice from game day. Besides, the same could be said for a lot of us. Bottom line is he brings it when it counts and nothing in this work makes me think he won't on Derby Day.

Vino Rosso 11:4 23:2 47:1 gallop out 1.00:2 1.13:4

Worked outside of Outplay and these two left the pole running and clipped of sub 12 1/8's of a mile in 3 of the 4 furlongs of the work with Vino edging clear late under Johnny V. I like this colt and though he won't be my top pick, I can definitely see him hitting the board for The Godfather.

Magnum Moon 12:2 23:4 47:2 out 1.00:2

Worked inside of stablemate Maraud and proved best under mild urging He seemed rather controllable today but his lack of power steering down the stretch in his last 2 races, particularly in the Arkansas Derby is concerning. It is highly concerning and he most likely can't run crooked in the lane and win this Derby.

Lone Sailor 23;4 48 out 1.00:4

Had a serious drill and did respond to urging here. The prep he exits was the least visually appealing in this observer's eyes and he will spend cinco de mayo getting hot and dirty.

Wonder Gadot 23:4 48 out 1.00:4

Looked terrific finishing in full stride with a real nice energy to her. This year the Oaks is most likely a showdown between the 2 favorites, but an exacta box comprising of them is highly unlikely to pay your expenses so if you feel like going for value, Gadot could oblige.

Post Script

Today's Derby works at Churchill Downs were of high caliber colts but 3 time zones away a massive red horse named Justify put in his final Derby prep. This horse is a beast. While this years rendition is light years better than lasts, I have not been shy about the unreal ability this colt has and it's highly unlikely I will pick against him May 5.

@DRFPrivman: Luis Contreras gets call on Bravazo..

Bolt d'Oro turns in the best Derby work.
Scary good....

https://www.xbtv.com/video/bolt-doro...ril-28th-2018/

Thought I would see Proctors Ledge on the undercard.
Anyone know when/where his next start might be?
Thank you in advance!
Rick

5/5/18 ~ Kentucky Derby (1 1/4M) Churchill Downs

1. Firenze Fire 39 (Mr. Amore Stable) Jason Servis/Paco Lopez (50-1)
2. Free Drop Billy 44 (Albaugh Family) Dale Romans/Robby Albarado (30-1)
3. Promises Fulfilled 52 (Robert Baron) Dale Romans/Corey Lanarie (30-1)
4. Flameaway-$ 70 (John Oxley) Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano (30-1)
5. Audible 110 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano (8-1)
6. Good Magic 134 (e Five, Stonestreet) Chad Brown/Jose Ortiz (12-1)
7. Justify 100 (China Horse, Head/Plains, Starlight, WinStar) Bob Baffert/Mike Smith (3-1)
8. Lone Sailor 42 (G M B Racing) Tom Amoss/James Graham (50-1)
9. Hofburg 40 (Juddmonte) Bill Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr. (20-1)
10. My Boy Jack 52 (Don’t Tell My Wife, Monomoy) Keith Desormeaux/Kent Desormeaux (30-1)
11. Bolt d’Oro 104 (Ruis Racing) Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza (8-1)
12. Enticed 103 (Godolphin) Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado (30-1)
13. Bravazo 54 (Calumet Farm) D. Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras (50-1)
14. Mendelssohn 100 (Coolmore) Aidan O’Brien/Ryan Moore (5-1)
15. Instilled Regard 29 (Oxo Equine/Larry Best) Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke (50-1)
16. Magnum Moon 150 (Lawana & Robert Low) Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez (6-1)
17. Solomini 54 (Zayat Stables, Coolmore) Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat (30-1)
18. Vino Rosso 107 (Repole, St. Elias) Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez (12-1)
19. Noble Indy 110 (WinStar, Repole) Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux (12-1)
20. Combatant 32 (Winchell, Willis Horton) Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana (30-1)
21/AE. Blended Citizen-$ 22 (Greg Hall, SAYJAY Racing/Steve Young) Doug O’Neill/Kyle Frey (50-1)

Looks like post position draw was good for all the contenders.

Early thoughts

A group

Magnum Moon- Pletcher is loaded for bear this year and I feel this one is his best. Ran green in last race but still put in a dominating performance and the sky is the limit on this one. Can sit off the pace and run them down on the stretch. Expecting a huge effort and break of the Apollo curse.

Audible - Another Pletcher horse with big potential in this race. Not a pace dependent horse as he stalked in one of his wins. However still should get a nice pace setup and be tough in the last quarter.

B Group

Bolt D'Oro - Horse is one tough sob and continues to throw in triple figure beyers. Leave off your tickets especially exotics at your own risk

Vino Rosso - Horse keeps getting better and Pletcher will have him ready. Feel his a slight bit under Moon and Audible but is a threat running late and at 12-1 a nice value play

Justify - Horse can win but feel its had three races all go his way and small fields. Baffert gets his horses ready but this will be by far his toughest test with the speed inside and just don't feel the horse can hold on against the other top horses here. Will still be on my ticket as you can't leave Baffert horses off but like others much better.

C Group

Good Magic - 2-year old champ starting to show flashes and is training very nicely. Going to have to run much better though to beat this field and have mixed feelings about his chances. May add to ticket if I can afford but am siding with others

Mendelssohn - Romped his first dirt race but lets face it he didn't beat anything in that race. True wildcard. Feeling he will get caught up in the pace. I always stay away from these invaders in the derby and will here. Will let him beat me.

Any word on where Salty and Awesome Slew are going to run? I see them both cross-entered.

Thanks in advance Steve!

Is there a condensed printable version of the entries with odds?
Simmilar to the one shown in this thread.

Leparoux only riding in 1 of the Turf races on Sat??

Steve,
You have Mendy as B or C for your pick 4,5s?