Gotta love Watchmaker....
 

...it is obvious who he lost his money on at 8-5 in the Champagne :D :D :D

http://www.drf.com/news/article/79671.html

This idea that someone who points out a trip that cost a horse a victory in a race somehow infers that the same person also lost money on said horse is ridiculous. Even if the person did lose money on said horse, which I doubt Watch did, it doesn't take away from the validity of the comments. Anyone can watch the replay of the Champagne and verify what was stated...it is obvious his analysis of NoBiz's trip is accurate.

I agree with this and I would add that I don't understand the importance of giving credit to one horse over the other. Scat Daddy ran a great race. Why couldn't No Biz have run an equally great race (his 2nd lifetime start) Joel, why exactly are the two mutually exclusive? They sure as hell shouldn't be.

For a 8-5 favorite to get beat and then an article to be written about him headlined "You can pin a star on this colt's stall" is a tad ridiculous to me....

Apparentally, he was supposed to win by his odds and he didn't....he had no real excuse IMO....hell, Scat Daddy had worse journeys in the Sanford and Hopeful IMO and nobody came out and wrote excuses about his trip....the way I look at it, Nobiz saved a lot of ground, while Scat Daddy raced far wider and moved far wider....and Scat Daddy still flew by him with plenty left in the tank while racing green.....

I smell a wagering-induced article...<sniff, sniff>

My Champagne pick is still running, I think... :eek:

I thought that both Scat Daddy AND Nobiz were running green... I still think that Scat Daddy wins the BC Juvy though.

He just described what happened, I didn't detect at all any bitterness over losing a bet. Make no mistake, No Biz had a real bad time of it as MW pointed out. This horse has really impresssed me. Considering his trip and the race experience that he gave away to the others like Scat Daddy, I think you've got to give him a big look in the juvenile.

I never said Nobiz didn't run a good race...he did...but you never saw Watchmaker write an article about Scat Daddy's trip when he had a HORRID trip in the Hopeful, did he?...NO...

If you have the audasity to write about a loser, they better not have been a false favorite at 8-5 IMO....give the public something not from the Captain Obvious playbook....I see it as making excuses for foolishly taking a short price on a non-deserving favorite.....

Its statements like this that really make me laugh.

No doubt he is talented, but Mike cannot say that he was the best horse...that would be asonine....I haven't seen a two-year-old train in the mornings like Scat Daddy does since Afleet Alex....he's no fluke and very much deserves more credit than people give him....

NLS didn't lose that race...Scat Daddy won it

I guess my problem is that you act like Scat won this race by 6 under wraps. Simply not the case. I hope he wins the Juvy for you b/c you have a thing for him. I'll leave it at that.....

Keep the faith brother!!

Fyi, why can't Mike say he was the better horse despite losing? You yourself have made the case many times that you don't necessarily go by the race record to determine how good a horse is, that you can just watch them and know how good they are even if they do not win.

True, but when a horse by Albert the Great is a false favorite at 8-5 over a horse established as the class of the field by being a graded stakes winner from the best barn in New York, I wouldn't expect a feature article on how great Nobiz is....he failed the public as the chalk...plain and simple...why should he command the repsect he is getting now? It was expected that he should have won the Champagne and he failed....so why pin a star on his stall?

Its obvious to most.

BTW: What's wrong with being by Albert the Great? Does that automatically disqualify him from being able to win a GR1?

Watch's job is to analyze the races. In doing so the odds are irrelevent. HIS analysis, which apparently corresponds to many others here, was that NoBiz ran the best race. He gave his reasons for this. Now, others can disagree, and that's fine and one of the things many of us find enjoyable about racing, in that there are often different interpretations of the same events. Often there are valid points on both sides. Sometimes someone else will point something out not noticed by another that may lead that other person in the right direction in the future. To deny the rightful legitimacy of this is folly.

Statistics say that the upside is limited....everybody has their theories and this is mine....it isn't an exact science, obviously, and he could be a freak. But you cannot base theories on outliers....

This is all good and fine but it appears then that NoBiz has then already established himself as a freak in this case.

OK, I don't know much about breeding, and you obviously know a ton more than me, but isn't this Albert the Great's second crop? How reliable can statistics be at this point especially concerning the " upside " of his foals?

Aren't we talking about a fairly small number of crops from Albert the Great so far? like two.

I just posted the same thing. I don't know anything about breeding but I too am confused by this.

I almost wrote word for word the same post, but instead shortened my version.

I think at this point I'm supposed to say "Jinx"

He has the chance to be better than his sire...for sure....I like the horse..let me make that clear. But, I still think Scat Daddy is better...I just do....they are both very good though...NLS did gain my respect to a degree...I am just mad that Scat Daddy, who I think was the best horse, isn't getting any respect...REMEMBER, HE DID WIN THE RACE....its almost like the media always has an agenda...just my opinion...I've followed Mike for a while and I think I have a feel for his style.....

I'm not a result oriented guy, Joel, and objectively I think NoBiz ran the best race Saturday. I've made a lot of money in my life at the racetrack betting on horses that lost races but ran much better than their results would indicate. This, in fact, is the basic job of a horseplayer.

I understand you have liked Scat Daddy for quite a while, as has the barn, and that's great and I can certainly understand how enjoyable it must be for you to see him doing well. However, I would hardly say he isn't getting the respect he deserves simply because someone analyzed the Champagne and felt NoBiz ran the best race. That doesn't take away from Scat Daddy's good performance, it is just once again is one man's opinion of the race.

I'm guessing NoBiz's connections would be extremely excited at the prospect of him being even as good as Albert the Great who was most certainly an excellent racehorse with the career accomplishments to prove it.

It is how I feel about his breeding...not so much about his produce record...again, it is a theory that has worked for me and put me on a lot of real racehorses at an early stage (Bernardini) and taken me off a lot of race horses at an early stage...far more than I can list...you use what works for you...everyone in this game builds convictions and that is one of mine..

Put it this way, I'm a breeder and I wouldn't breed to Albert the Great....does that mean he sucks?..No...just my convictions...

..his yearlings I've seen are actually not all that bad in the flesh, but then again, Unaccounted For's yearlings also looked good in the flesh......

I must be blind because I thought the horse got a great trip. He hugged the rail the entire race, he swung out two-wide at the head of the lane and he got run down fairly easily by a horse who went three-wide all the way around the turn. I think Scat Daddy was much the best.

If every horse I bet got the trip that NoBiz had, I would be very happy. How often is a come-from-behinder able to hug the rail like that and have such a huge gap open up on the rail in the middle of the turn? It doesn't happen very often. That ground saving trip more than made up for the sluggish start that he had. Overall, I think he had a great trip. I think the best horse clearly won.

I couldn't agree more....I'm not saying he had a 'perfect' trip, but he ceratinly had as good a trip as the winner IMO, and I think the winner won far easier than the final margin based on the greeness I saw the final sixteenth.....

Ladies and gentleman, our winner Mr Joel Cunningham...

This is typical Watchmaker. Runs us up and down about how untouchable his choice is (in this case No Biz), who gets bet down to overwhelming favorite. Then moans that the star may not have been the winner (Scat Daddy). If No Biz had won, Mikey would have been crowning him BC Juvy champ already. Typical Watchmaker, beats his drum so loud and then when the tap goes faint, he changes his tune. But if he's right, we would not have heard the end of it...EVER.

I'll say it again, 5-2 on Scat Daddy was borderline overlay of the year, and was easy pickens if you were paying attention ;)

No, you are the winner, SS.....ding, ding, ding :D

I agree with you. I would be willing to make a large wager that Watchmaker bet NoBiz.

And that would make his analysis of the race null and void?

His bad break is overrated. IMO...go back and watch it...Scat had a worse break in his debut and in the Sanford IMO....

You are so unbelievably biased, it's laughable. What the hell difference does it make if the public overbet him as to whether this horse is a star or not? So stars never get beaten at short odds? He was overbet. You already stated this. He shouldn't have been 8/5. What the **** does that have to do with the horse's talent?

You know what's a "tad ridiculous" to ME? The fact that your horse is, according to you, still "very green" in his fourth start, three weeks from his biggest race of the year, and you interpret that as a positive sign. THAT'S ridiculous.

Oh yes, he's a "come-from-behinder," for sure. This characterization is based on what, exactly? He broke his maiden from within two lengths of the lead BECAUSE TAGG TOLD CORNELIO NOT TO GO TO THE LEAD, then he gets shut off at the break of this race and starts out in ninth, and now he's a "come-from-behinder." Right.

It would at least provide a serious conflict of interest....I read the article and seriously disagreed with much of what he thinks he saw....Your perception gets a little derailed when you are nervously holding a losing ticket on a false favorite you took a ridiculous 8-5 on off of a win over Bullara - a Pletcher colt who I watched at CD this summer and will likely be in for maiden claiming $50K very shortly....

As I said, his ground-saving trip more than made up for his losing a couple of lengths at the start.

It would be one thing if he broke slow and was flying late but couldn't catch the winner. But that's not what happened. He had the lead and got run down. I don't see any way that he was the best horse. If he and SD reversed trips, SD still wins the race easily. SD probably wins the race even easier if they reverse trips.