3/27-29 (CD): KY Derby Future Wager -- Pool 4
 

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4

Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds

1. Albano, 50-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 30-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 6-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 5-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 12-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)

7. Chitu, 10-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 30-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 12-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)

13. Midnight Hawk, 20-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 50-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 15-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 20-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 20-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1

19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 30-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 50-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 8-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5

(f) – denotes field entry

Anything even resembling a decent price in there?

As always the final prices will differ considerably from the ML but to answer the question using the ML odds - Not many in my opinion.

There could be value in Bobby's Kitten. Other than that, if you think Tapiture, Strong Mandate or Ride On Curlin can win the Arkansas Derby they might offer some relative value.

Curious to see who people are most excited about with regard to who is left in "the field." I still think Commissioner and Tonalist are interesting.

How much you looking to bet on BK?

I'd bet Candy Boy at 12:1

Even if he won his next with a 107 BSF what is the lowest price he would be in the KD 5/1? Why not just a parlay...Prep-Derby

If you think Intense Holiday takes care of biz in the LA Derby, he won't be 20-1 in the KY Derby. Even if the future closes on him at 15-1, I think you get more value than you would betting him on Derby Day.

Also, Ring Weekend isn't that much of a fuke. 50-1? That's too good to at least not make a flyer on. 30-1 would even be ok for that

I like Intense Holiday as well but hard to root for connections for me at least

I agree. He was the value in other pools, I have him 2x and said it back then. I think he will beat California Chrome in a week in a half, him and the Baffert who won at Oaklawn should put on a nice show.

I still think Uncle Sigh could be value. If he wins the Wood he will be 15 or 20-1 and he will likely be over 50-1 when this pool closes. I have him at 73 and 42 though, so Ill sit chilly.

If I were to take any of these, I's say the greatest value is Constitution at 30-1.

While I hope I am proved wrong, this crop as a whole does nothing to excite me.

Ugh. He has not impressed me at all.

Thank You :$:

None. Just answering the question that was asked. If he runs in and wins the Bluegrass you won't be able to get anything close to 30-1 in May. At least not in the win pool.

What has he done that we don't see every year from one or more Pletcher horse at Gulfstream? One could argue he was not best or even second best in his allowance score.

You may want to watch it again. Or not. I couldn't care any less. He draws perfectly in Post 4 - Pletcher's comments for Saturday:

He's doing very well,” Pletcher said. “We're very pleased with the way he's coming into the race. I'm happy with post 4. We're outside of Wildcat Red and inside of General a Rod, so we're looking for a forwardly placed position. We'll play it off the break and let Javier (Castellano) make that decision as things unfold.”

If he were obvious he wouldn't be 30-1, Joe. And you won't get near that afterward - that's why I said it was the best value play in the field.

Constitution didn't make his debut until Jan 11th.
I would need way more than 30-1 in the Derby future to buck a 130+ yr old trend

I get it. You like him Saturday, so that makes him a value play at 30-1. I think Cairo Prince lays over this field. The only value I can hope for is that your horse gets bet in exotics and Prince is not as big a favorite in the pick 3 and pick 4 that he should be.

I think General a Rod could be value if he stays at or floats up from 30-1. If Cairo Prince flops in the Fl Derby and this horse runs another good one, he could be a legit contender on Derby Day.

I haven't really begun to look at this race yet but pacewise, he looks as though he can sit a preferable trip and if he is as good as advertised (figurewise - if you can trust BRIS - there was not much at all between CP's Holy Bull {104}
and Constitution's last {103)}.
Additionally, he's one of a few from the FL route to the Derby that has a shot at getting 1 1/4th. So yes, locking in 30-1 is a steal if you can get it because if he wins (and I believe he has every chance) He would have to be considered one of 3 or 4 prohibitive favorites, thus 30-1 or anything close will be a dream. Where, conversely, taking 6-1 on Cairo Prince would be insane.

Bet the field. Hope an "unknown" jumps up and wins one of the final preps. Pray he continues to progess for May.


That's my plan, as horrible as that sounds. Lol

Not much love for Sunland. Chitu is 30-1 with about 72K in the win pool.

--Dunbar

Is chitu even pointing to the derby? Seemed to be known to all that the distance simply ain't happening?

Joesph - I hope you seriously considered taking 19-1 before the race. Not trying to rub it in. He's going to be 5-1 or less if he fortunate enough to make it to the Derby and looks like he's only going to get better with the extra panel.

I dont think for 1 second he will be 5-1 or under...your serious right?

Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 ~ Final Odds

Horse, morning-line odds, Pool 4 odds, Pool 3 odds, Pool 2 odds, Pool 1 odds

1. Albano, 45-1, 53-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
2. Bayern, 15-1, 17-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
3. Bobby’s Kitten, 35-1, 3-1(f), 46-1, 28-1
4. Cairo Prince, 9-1, 9-1, 13-1, 26-1
5. California Chrome, 9-1, 32-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
6. Candy Boy, 13-1, 12-1, 32-1, 4-5(f)

7. Chitu, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
8. Constitution, 19-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
9. General a Rod, 24-1, 36-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
10. Hoppertunity, 15-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
11. In Trouble, 30-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 53-1
12. Intense Holiday, 20-1, 22-1, 69-1, 4-5(f)

13. Midnight Hawk, 50-1, 3-1(f), 19-1, 4-5(f)
14. Ride On Curlin, 45-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 57-1
15. Ring Weekend, 24-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
16. Samraat, 17-1, 30-1, 30-1, 4-5(f)
17. Social Inclusion, 11-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
18. Strong Mandate, 30-1, 18-1, 17-1, 27-1

19. Tapiture, 15-1, 17-1, 39-1, 4-5(f)
20. Uncle Sigh, 45-1, 42-1, 73-1, 4-5(f)
21. Vicar’s in Trouble, 35-1, 52-1, 42-1, 4-5(f)
22. We Miss Artie, 35-1, 3-1(f), 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
23. Wildcat Red, 30-1, 28-1, 3-2(f), 4-5(f)
24. Field (all others), 5-1, 3-1, 3-2, 4-5

(f) – denotes field entry

Poor bettors got 9/1 on Cairo Prince, when he's going to be 20/1 in the Kentucky Derby.

He's going to be in the Derby?

It should be enough points to get in, if they intend to go. 24 points was good enough last year and the bubble horses tend to drop out the last week.

I haven't read anything that they don't intend to go.

They are going to need a few things to break their way over the next 2 weeks. The Tonalists, Social Inclusions, Schoolofhardrocks, Gala Awards and Bayerns will be leapfrogging him right quick.

I don't think he gets in..

Perhaps Cairo Prince ran the race he really was supposed to, and has been massively overhyped from day one.

I don't see it likely he's a legit Derby threat.

If he ran in the Fountain of Youth, and then had that same flat performance yesterday I think most of us would agree with that sentiment. Asking someone to go 1 1/8 off a layoff since January is asking a lot IMO. I just think 2nd-off the shelf he has every chance to improve.

wasn't he like 4/5 going onto yesterday with his only loss being by a head to honor code I think? I agree that he had some hype to him but compared to others in the mix he was far from being a paper champion

will make him a must use in the Peter pan or preakness then :-)

The remsen was ugly and honor code hasn't done much since then.

He hasn't beaten much of anything and there are several in this crop that are clearly better than him.

On the plus side, he does strike me as a type of horse that can easily improve with age, but for his chances in the derby? He will need much to go perfectly his way to win, and that is including things before the race even happens.

assuming he doesn't make the Derby. I think he finds a way to eek in.