12/26 (SA): Malibu (G1), Sir Beaufort (G3), Cal Breeders (M/F)
 

1st (Post time 12:00) California Breeders Champion S.

7 Furlongs | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Tangerine Tickle Berrios Hector I 117 L
2 Almost a Lady Rosario J 115 L
3 Willa B Awesome Pedroza M A 119 L
4 Warren's Amber Espinoza V 115 L
5 Belloma Garcia M 117 L
6 Ismene Smith M E 119 L



7th (3:20) California Breeders Champion S.

7 Furlongs | Open | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Forever Freedom Talamo J 115 L
2 Passing Game Flores D R 119 L
3 Got Even Gomez G K 115 L
4 Johnny Be Mine Garcia M 117 L
5 Motown Men Bejarano R 117 L
6 Crimson Giant Linares M G 115 L
7 Stoney Fleece Rosario J 122 L
8 Exotic Slew Quinonez A 117 L
9 Heart Fever Nakatani C S 117 L



8th (4:00) Sir Beaufort S. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Cozy Kitten Quinonez A 118 L
2 Venomous (GB) Rosario J 118 L
3 Comma to the Top Talamo J 118 L
4 Mr. Commons Smith M E 118 L
5 Thirtyfirststreet Berrios Hector I 118 Blk-On L
6 Irish Art Bejarano R 118 L
7 Moment of Weakness (IRE) Krigger K 118 L
8 Ultimate Eagle Pedroza M A 123 L
9 Riveting Reason Espinoza V 118 Blk-On L



9th (4:35) Malibu S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $300,000

1 1 El Pocho (CHI) Krigger K Cardenas Ruben 118 FTL 50-1
2 2 Centralinteligence Rosario J Ellis Ronald W 118 L 8-1
3 3 Luckarack Berrios Hector I O'Neill Doug 118 L 30-1
4 4 Rothko Nakatani C S Asmussen Steven M 118 L 9-2
5 5 Racing Aptitude Smith M E Baffert Bob 118 L 8-1
6 6 Hoorayforhollywood Gomez G K Baffert Bob 118 L 8-1
7 7 Light Up the Score Espinoza V Asmussen Steven M 118 L 12-1
8 8 Smash Bejarano R Baffert Bob 118 L 9-2
9 9 Associate Dominguez R A Dutrow, Jr. R E 118 L 6-1
10 10 Wine Police Talamo J Asmussen Steven M 118 L 8-1
11 11 The Factor Garcia M Baffert Bob 123 L 7-2

Funny bewteen Asmussen and Baffert they have 7 entries in the Malibu.

Between everyone not named Baffert and Asmussen -- they have 4 entries in the Malibu?

Gee... not to sound like Alan or anything but this isn't very exciting, is it?

One of the few times that the Malibu is composed almost entirely of sprinters. Not even a Triple Crown also-ran (they're in the Sir Beaufort earlier on the card) to make it interesting.

Going with Racing Aptitude, who won a couple of routes for Howie Tesher in FL earlier this year, and comes off a thorough dusting of his elders in a minor stakes at Hollywood. Runner-up Tweebster, one of the great Twirling Candy's vanquished foes last winter, came back to place in the G3 Native Diver and show horse El Gato Malo returned to win a recent turf allowance handily.

Centralinteligence has the pedigree to stretch out (and perhaps turf), but he's been pretty sharp sprinting and seems to have room to improve. Toss his Polytrack debacle and he looks solid.

Don't know what to make of Dutrow's ship-in. He's unbeatable at 7f at least in claimers and he seemed well-meant as a 2yo last year, running close to stakes horse Rogue Romance before converting to a typical Linda Rice turf sprinter. Closely related to the good Allen Paulson runner Dowty,

Is it me or are 7F races very rare nowadays.

It's you.

I'm with you on Centralinteligence, I like him a lot. Are you concerned at all with how poorly Racing Aptitude has run on dirt previously?

This race is great, lots of things going on.
Horse I dont want any part of at all-

Associate. He will be bet a little Dutrow/Ramon to blow out wins. Tons of speed in here and he has beat nothing at all. He can beat me everyday in a spot like this.
The Factor. One of my favorites, but he feels like hes over the top. His last 2 leave a lot to be desired. Ill be hoping he runs well, but I wont have $1 on him. Wont even cover in multis.
Wine Police. Hes Ok, so are the 2 above but not in this spot and not for me. He never really moved forward this year off his 2yr old debut. He can beat me.
Racing Aptitude. Ran really well last time, but I highly doubt he can repeat that race vs a group like this. Hard for me to toss Baffert, but thats 2 now.
Light Up The Score. Not that this one will really be bet, but it is Steve A. Hes just not good enough, I doubt anyone will argue that.

Horses I like-

Rothko. Getting better with every race. I dont love him, but Ill cover him in my multis with 2 other horses. This guy has to be a price in this spot.
Smash. Obvious issues with this guy. He was supposed to be a Derby horse last year and was then off till May. First time since May he is pairing up races, second time in his brief career. If hes right, and you have to assume he is they wont beat him.
Hoorayforhollywood. Love everything about him, except the 2 short price seconds. The cutback works, has speed but has proven he can sit and win.
Those are the 3 Im using. Dont really get the Ellis horse at all, wont be using him.

What don't you get about the Ellis horse aside from not being trained by Baffert?

We both know it has nothing to do with Baffert. I dont like The Factor and he was my favorite 2yr old last year. For starters Smash already beat him, why is he going to improve and be better then Smash on Monday?

It's a bit more complicated then you are making it. Smash beat him a half length after looking like he was going to win by open lengths at the top of the stretch. To me, it seems like he is a horse heading in the right direction. His lone dirt start was a sharp effort and I have a lot more confidence in him running his race compared to Smash who is being kept together with scotch tape.

Again, what's not to get?

It's a big question mark, but I'm explaining it away with several excuses. His first attempt was on slop. In his second, he was 100-1 in the Fountain of Youth, had some trouble, and wasn't in good form to begin with. After one more poor effort, he was sent to the sidelines for 6 months. Giving him a pass for the Santa Anita effort, too, as he was tackling older foes off the aforementioned layoff in his first out for Bob Baffert. No surprise he moved up with his best career effort in his second start for the barn. In addition, he has absolutely ridiculous workouts over the track coming into this.

On a more cynical note, Martin Garcia opting for The Factor tallies another check for the positive column IMO.

He had a start before the slop attempt in which he was 8th, but I can sort of buy everything else. He just seems like a better fit for the Sir Beaufort to me.

He will have to improve 10 beyer points off his lone dirt effort. I dont like the horse at all. This entire field with the exception of maybe The Factor feels like they are heading the right way, and even he has a chance to win.

So would Smash, Rothko and Hoorayforhollywood.

Thanks, stakes nom PPs didn't have his debut. In any other barn, he probably would be in the Sir Beaufort, but basically I'm working on the premise that his career in FL is meaningless at this point. This is a pretty weak renewal of the Malibu, with the feel of a conditions allowance race. He throttled some seasoned stakes horses (all of whom have seen better days, of course) in his last. Surface is a question mark, but his odds should be enticing enough to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I'm kind of surprised they didn't try the Malibu with Comma to the Top. He certainly ran well enough last winter on dirt to be competitive in this race.

It's funny, because Miller is essentially making the same mistake he did with Majestic City in the BC.

Either way, he's a bit up against it. He was laid up for an injury for 6 months and now would be making his 3rd start in one month. I'm glad he bounced right back last time, as his comeback was atrocious, but I think they're getting a little too greedy here. He makes more sense in races like the San Fernando and Strub anyways, where he can set or stalk a slow pace and try and give the closers the slip.

Another interesting horse would have been Sway Away, who unfortunately, isn't quite ready. He could make some noise in the top 7f races next year.

The third race is a very interesting 2yo MSW.

Lasso (Baffert) looks strong, and the Hoffmans debuter looks live too. Gotta think with the breeding on the Hoffmans though, turf.

The other Baffert, with that pedigree, will take money.

The Hofmans horse comes from one of the most potent families around right now. The dam is a half-sister to stakes winner Capitano, who won his debut on dirt at HP at odds of 109-1. The dam herself won her debut on turf at Santa Anita at 50-1 and eventually won graded stakes in a brief career. Other half-siblings to the dam include multiple stakes winner Dilemma, who has won stakes on both turf and dirt. There are also two Stonestreet runners, Heavenly Chorus and Yarid, both multiple winners, one on dirt and one on turf.

All those mentioned broke their maidens in special weights early in their careers, two of them on debut. One to follow for sure, especially with the inevitable surface switch.

Associate, nice 45 pt move up off the claim... Horse probably has every possible steroid known to the planet Earth in its system.

Can anyone honestly look at those PP's and not think CHEATER? I guess those front wraps really do work!

I laughed.

Three of the first five races at Tampa today, are 7f.
Three of the first four races at Tampa on Friday, are 7f.

Love Rothko here.

Who would have thought Arch would sire a top sprinter? But this colt has looked pretty good in his last couple of starts. I wonder what sort of speed he will show. In his only 7f race prompted the pace and wilted. Considering the barn, his last two workouts have been very sharp.

In his only start over the track, he was well handled by Hoorayforhollywood. Both colts were making their debuts.

Hooray looks pretty tough here.

Rothko looked scary good in that Churchill win on BC Friday..

I'd like Hooray to prove out too as I was stupid crazy about his dam.

That debut race does not matter at all.

I'm a fan of The Factor but this is who I'm using on top. :$:

Seems like he has talent, but I never trust on the win end those horses that lose photos consistently. Baffert's loaded in this race, why doesn't he take the easy allowance money and wait for the San Fernando?

That mare would have done a lot more if she hadn't been thrown to the wolves early on before ever winning a race. Plus, they felt the need to start her in a Breeder's Cup race every year regardless of form.

Malibu ML

1 El Pocho (CHI) 50-1
2 Centralinteligence 8-1
3 Luckarack 30-1
4 Rothko 9-2
5 Racing Aptitude 8-1
6 Hoorayforhollywood 8-1
7 Light Up the Score 12-1
8 Smash 9-2
9 Associate 6-1
10 Wine Police 8-1
11 The Factor 7-2

A few things jump out at me. The Factor is an underlay. Hooray is an overlay. Wine Police has to be over 12-1 at post time. Associate please god let them bet him, as juiced as he likely is he has no chance 6-1 is crazy.

I'm kind of surprised Wine Police is getting lost in the wagering. He's no world beater, but he's kept solid company his entire career. Other than The Factor, who can say that in this race?

It's possible that there's still a significant gap between the stakes 3yos and the allowance level 3yos. While Smash, Hoorayforhollywood, Centralinteligence, Rothko, et al look like they have bright futures, there's something to be said for being "battle tested". Smash was rejected by Coil in their comeback last May, then was no threat to Indiano in FL. Hoorayforhollywood was edged by Decisive Moment, a Kentucky Derby longshot and Grade 3 type (at best), at Delta Downs. Centralinteligence beat a thoroughly toasted Runflatout in his allowance score. The 4 horses that placed to Rothko in his lopsided allowance wins have done nothing since, save for My Man Marty winning a subsequent 20k claimer.

At any rate, this isn't my idea of a Grade 1.

I get everything your saying, I just dont see Wine Police improving that much. Has he even ran back to his career debut yet this year?

That's kind of my point. He's the known quantity. I may be way off base--I don't have the Beyer numbers--, but perhaps he doesn't have to improve at all. He's acquitted himself well against the likes of Soldat, Stay Thirsty, Boys At Toscanova, Redeemed, and Caleb's Posse. That might be good enough (for now).

The lightly raced horses we've mentioned have essentially only beaten each other, and their few stakes starts and layoff lines don't particularly bestow confidence.

It seems like they all should be between 9-2 and 8-1 in here, with the exception of the Chilean import. Even the O'Neill claimer has his positives, with a minor stakes score (over the well-meant Baffert colt CJ Russell) and 7 career victories under his belt.

Did anyone else notice that they changed the headline in the form and it now has the corect track listed? :D

It had said Hollywood's Malibu Worth a Shot for Ellis.

It was sad that it stayed up for 48 hours that way. But it was also fitting since Hovdey had his name plastered on the headline.

Of course, no one bothered to correct the gross error in the actual article.

Papa Clem did not win the Strub. He didn't even run in it.

Can anyone post the PP's for opening day at SA??? Pretty please!!