Will this be the pace?
 

On the lead or within a length:

Shackleford
Decisive Moment
Uncle Mo
Comma to the Top
Soldat

Within 2-4 lengths:

Master of Hounds
Twice the Appeal
Watch Me Go
Twinspired

Midpack:

Mucho Macho Man
Santiva
Pants on Fire
Stay Thirsty
Midnight Interlude

Near Back:
Archarcharch
Toby's Corner
Nehro

Dead Closers:

Dialed In
Animal Kingdom
Brilliant Speed

I could move a few up or down based on a running line or two, but this is a pretty good estimate. The posts may force a few hands when we see who has to go or take way back.

...

I expect Mo to be 7-8 back.

I would be absolutely stunned if he's more than 3-4 lengths off the lead in the opening half-mile.

I would expect him to be (using your terminology) "midpack" or perhaps even "Near Back."

No chance he is this close, he has never faced the speed that he'll get in this race. I strongly doubt he has the juice to get up there.

His natural cruising speed - if 100%- will keep him within a few lengths. If he is 8 back, I'd be really worried.

His natural cruising speed can be anything. For instance, he ran pretty easily in the Timely Writer, and if he runs anywhere near that pace again, he'll be a lot further back than 7-8.

Basically, if CTTT, Soldat and Shackleford set a real hot pace, I think JV will be content to let UM sit comfortably off the pace.

My expectation is for UM to go maybe around a 48 or so for the first half mile.

Pace will be

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the lead or within a length:

Shackleford-Romans said he is going
Decisive Moment
Comma to the Top-Will Run out front as long as he can go
Soldat-We already saw what happens with dirt in face

Within 2-4 lengths:
Uncle Mo
Mucho Macho Man
Pants on Fire
Watch Me Go
Twinspired

Midpack:
Twice the Appeal
Mucho Macho Man
Santiva
Stay Thirsty
Midnight Interlude
Master of Hounds

Near Back:
Archarcharch
Toby's Corner
Nehro
Animal Kingdom

Dead Closers:
Dialed In
Brilliant Speed

Then 24 then 48? That should do it easily enough.

That should do what easily enough?

Win by 5-6.

Oh. Well, yeah, that seems likely.

If he does in fact run those times, I would say so. 2 flat would (should) demolish this group and many before it.

I would change the word "expect" and its variations to "hope" or "crossing my fingers".

I'm surprised anyone in here thinks Uncle Mo will be even marginally effective if he's 7-8 lengths off the pace early.

Why?

Are you of the belief that he's some sort of speedball that cannot be effective sitting?

I'd be worried about him being 25 off the lead, maybe, but sitting even 10 off a hot pace shouldn't be an issue, possible traffic problems excluded.

I think people are hoping he'll fall into a Super Saver-like trip.

You know, because that was such a definitive performance he uncorked and validated in subsequent starts.

He simply needs to regain his 2yo form--which was pretty potent setting or stalking the pace--to win.

The horse has speed, why would you be interested in him being wrangled back and negating that asset?

In no way to I think he's a speedball who can't be effective sitting. However, there's a bit difference between sitting a length or two off the pace and 7-8 back as you're saying.

The only way Uncle Mo should be 10 off the pace is if they somehow go :43 and change. He has, or should I say had, a ton of natural speed in his best races last year.

Exactly. This is eerily reminiscent of all the people who believed that Sidney's Candy could win the Derby last year because they were of the opinion that he could rate. Now, he has proven since that he's a good horse but he's still never rated in any way, shape or form. Expecting a horse to be effective with a dramatic running style change in a race like the Derby is very dangerous. Unless you have Borel on board...

The thing is, from the very beginning, Uncle Mo has always run relaxed with a very push button racing style. What did he go in the Timely Writer, maybe 50 for the half? I don't think it would have mattered had he gone 50 or had he gone 46. The result would have been nearly the same.

He went as fast as he did last year because simply put, he was just much better than his opposition, and with his abundant natural speed, he was logically placed in a forward spot.

Had there been a suicidal pace set in the BCJ, he'd have been fine sitting much further off than he did.

The comparison to Sydney's Candy is totally irrelevant, as they have completely different running styles and demeanors. SC pulls. UM does what is asked. He's just so good, a 46 and change comes easily to him.

The point of the comparison was that people expected Sidney's Candy to stalk and be effective, much like you're expecting Uncle Mo to be as many as 7-8 lengths out. What makes you think he'd be effective from back there? He'd be getting dirt for the first time, would run the risk of going very wide much of the way and would have to pass more than one horse for the first time.

Now I'm not saying Uncle Mo should be sent on a mission to get the lead, but to allow him to settle 10 back of a :46 half-mile would be foolish. The horse has proven capable (albeit last year) of going quickly early and having plenty left.

If I were hoping for an Uncle Mo win I'd be looking for a Big Brown or Barbaro type of trip, close throughout with a big move on the turn.

In his first two starts he pulled himself to the lead and found himself locked in speed duels. He certainly had another gear left for the stretch, which is what made him a superior 2yo, but that doesn't mean that he can be positioned anywhere in a race.

Fair enough points and questions. What makes me think he'll be effective is his style of running. He's relaxed, and he's shown he can go very slow in the early parts of a race, and close with a huge late kick. He's also shown he can be close up on a fast pace and still win easy. This to me indicates a versatility that is often lacked by horses with his brilliance.

I just don't see how being 10 off a 46 would do him any harm at all. Is there something you've seen in his races that would make you think that?

Me? I'd like to see him about 4-5 off, regardless, but my feeling is that they will try to keep him off the pace more if they go quickly, which is what seems likely.

Not too concerned about going wide, but the dirt in the face could be an issue. He's professional, which should help with that.

Maybe in his debut. I didn't think he was extending himself at all though in the Champagne. If memory serves me correctly, it was watching that race which convinced me that he'd have no problems being asked to come from off the pace, despite him being up on the lead.

This horse always seems to be well within himself.

I just have a hard time believing a horse is going to run covered up in a race for the first time, go 1 1/4 miles for the first time, and have basically only one prep this year, and still win. If he does, even with this garbage crop, he's a monster.